Political risk analysis. Episode 1

Politico publication states that if Simion / AUR ever wins the elections, he could be a more disruptive figure for mainstream European politics than the former Prime Minister of Hungary, Viktor Orbán. And it is not wrong at all, with a small clarification, probably less relevant for Politico, but essential for us, namely that the disruptive effect will primarily be on Romania.

The prospect of a major success for AUR in the event of early elections is as clear as can be, no matter how hallucinogenic figures are being thrown around these days to further confuse us in the summer haze. Figures that, if they weren't so ridiculous, would seriously harm the state of health of democracy. On this note, however, for now, comedy saves Romania.

Returning to more serious matters, if elections were to be organized tomorrow (desired, in the premiere, after 3 months of crisis and political blockage, about the same number of citizens as those of Romanians who would opt for other solutions to exit the crisis), AUR, led by the most popular party leader of the moment, would win decisively. With a score almost double compared to some mainstream parties (PNL or PSD), and a score of about three, even four times higher than that of USR.

This is not just a momentary position, but a consolidated trend in the last year since the presidential elections last year when George Simion obtained almost 41% in the first round (on a turnout of 53%) and about 46% in the second round (on a turnout of 65%). We are talking about actual votes on a high turnout, not polls, whether correct or less correct.

In the case of parliamentary elections with a potentially lower turnout, I expect the most mobilized electorate to be that of AUR. This makes the score of this party potentially even higher compared to serious sociological estimates based on a declared higher turnout (48% - 50%) than the level we were used to in the parliamentary elections. I add the fact that in all the measurements carried out in the last year within the Barometru Informant.ro - INSCOP Research, the intention to vote for AUR has always been higher in scenarios with lower turnout (below 50%) than in those with very high turnout (over 60%).

In these conditions, the state of tension in society, amplified by the succession of disruptive subjects on the internal agenda (the salary law, increasingly lower incomes, inflated inflation, declining purchasing power) and on the external/security agenda (serious violation of national sovereignty by war drones shot down by the Romanian Army - a premiere since World War II, global increase in hydrocarbon prices with direct effects on the population), is met with gross political quarrels. That is, the most inadequate possible response in the face of the gravity of economic and social realities.

In such a turbulent context, the rise in popularity of radical populism becomes a natural consequence, as banal as the universal conclusion that water is wet.

Perhaps, after all, political responsibility will prevail and we will eventually have a functional government with full powers. It remains to be seen whether we will have the opportunity to see both radical populism in action and to clarify once and for all how it is with the difference between rhetoric and work. Here, the answer will be given by the ability of parliamentary political parties and the president to calculate political risk in the short and long term.