The extension of the gas price cap equates to a transition from social shielding to a mechanism of the "smart guys' power".

Romania is no longer, in fact, in a debate about capping the price of gas. It is already decided. The scheme is in effect until April 1, 2026, with a cap of 0.31 lei/kWh for household consumers, and public messages are already talking about new extensions. For the market, this is an unequivocal signal: the price of gas remains under the control of politics and the "smart guys".

And when the price is controlled, we are no longer talking just about social protection, but about power, redistribution, and influence.

Protection in discourse, control in reality

The official position is attractive: the state protects the population from shocks, keeps the facts under control, and avoids a new social crisis. In reality, the capping is much more than a shield for the consumer..

Worse, the capping postpones the confrontation with the truth about the gas market in Romania. Without a free price, we do not see who is efficient, who is fair, who cheats, and who invests. ANRE, competition – all remain a shadow as long as the price is set administratively.

Where the "smart guys" appear

Whenever the state sets a price in a volatile market, it creates arbitrages. The OUG 6/2025 scheme operates based on a "recognized cost" – a weighted average of these, not the actual cost of each MWh. Those who know how to build their portfolio, application periods, and legal structure can end up being compensated more than the actual cost of gas.

The difference between the "real cost" and the "recognized cost" is not an error. It is a validated speculation.

To this is added the delays in settlement. Large suppliers, with financing and access to banks, can withstand. Small suppliers are suffocated and forced to sell or exit the market. The capping thus becomes a mechanism for consolidating the market in favor of the large ones.

The paradox of the cap

The capping should lower prices. In reality, a cap becomes a psychological threshold for the market price. If all suppliers bill "below the cap," but close to it, the real price is no longer dictated by competition, but by agreement.

When the Government says that "there are offers below the cap," it implicitly acknowledges that the cap no longer protects, but only normalizes a price level.

Who wins "one more year"

Politics wins social peace and the populism of the subject. Large suppliers win guaranteed volume, minimal commercial risk, and protected margins. Traders win from opacity and from arbitrage windows.

The consumer loses, because they remain captive in an administered price. Some suppliers lose, because they cannot finance the scheme. The market loses, because the real price signal is destroyed.

The financial underbelly

There are already suppliers who have bought gas for the period after April 1, 2026, at prices of 151-157 lei/MWh. These contracts can no longer be stopped. If the capping continues, it means that the state will cover the difference (157 -120 = 37 lei/MWh), which will be compensated from public funds. In other words, the state budget will cover contracts made at high prices, and the money will flow willingly to importers, producers, suppliers...

At the same time, a large part of the gas that should come after April 1, 2026, if the capping continues, has already been sold (industrial consumers, suppliers, traders), meaning that part of the gas no longer exists to support the capping scheme. If the capping continues, which contains the legal obligation for producers to sell at 120 lei/MWh, in order to cover the gas consumption of the population and non-residential consumers, they will have to purchase gas from imports at higher prices and sell it at a loss.

It is a socialization of the loss.

Conclusion

The capping on gas is no longer a simple social policy. It is a power scheme that constrains consumer behavior, shifts costs into the budget, and creates wide spaces between the "real cost" and the "capped price." In these spaces, speculations are born – and there, inevitably, the "smart guys" thrive.