Ukraine, the largest exporter of sunflower oil, is facing a decline in production due to drought, estimated at 10.4 million tons in 2025

Ukraine, a world leader in sunflower oil exports, is facing a significant decline in production in the 2025/2026 season due to unfavorable weather conditions such as drought and high temperatures. ASAP Agri analyst Victoria Blazhko estimated that the sunflower seed harvest could reach 10.4 million tons, down from 12 million tons in 2024. Additionally, the consulting company APK-Inform has forecast a reduction in sunflower oil production to 5.13 million tons in 2025/2026.

In the context of this decline, Ukraine will focus its efforts on the domestic processing of oilseeds, with an increase in the processing of rapeseed and soybeans, at the expense of exports, which have been affected by the introduction of a 10% export tax. Rapeseed processing could reach a record level of 1.4 million tons, and soybean processing could increase to 3 million tons. This change indicates a shift in market balance in favor of processing plants.