India could harvest 10 million fewer tons of rice amid drought and reduced rainfall

India, the world’s largest rice producer and exporter, could see production decline by approximately 10 million tons this year amid drought and insufficient rainfall during the monsoon season. The statement was made by B.V. Krishna Rao, president of the Rice Exporters Association.

The reduction would represent a decline of nearly 6.5% from last year’s record harvest of 154 million tons and would be the most significant drop since the 2009–2010 season. Since June 1, rainfall in India has been 15% below normal, while in some growing states the deficit has reached 42%.

As of September 11, the area planted with summer rice stood at 42.68 million hectares, nearly 4% lower than a year earlier. These crops account for more than 80% of the country’s total production. The winter crop could also be affected, as water reserves in reservoirs are below normal levels.

Domestic and export prices have already begun to rise, and developments in India could intensify pressure on international markets, where prices in Thailand and Vietnam are also increasing. Analysts believe, however, that record stocks of 59.6 million tons as of September 1 will allow India to maintain exports without restrictions.