Suspicious bets on the US–Iran ceasefire: New accounts on Polymarket have won hundreds of thousands of dollars from the ceasefire.

At least 50 new accounts placed significant bets on Polymarket on Tuesday, shortly before U.S. President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire two weeks between Washington and Tehran, according to an analysis of blockchain data.

Some newly created accounts made considerable gains, with one digital wallet betting $72,000 on the ceasefire and obtaining a profit of $200,000. Despite the announcement regarding the ceasefire, the Polymarket platform marked the contract related to the ceasefire as "disputed," with Iran continuing to impose restrictions on some ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz and missile attacks being reported in the region. The bets were made in a context where political signals indicated rather an escalation of the conflict, with Donald Trump threatening Iran.

These events have generated calls for stricter regulations on prediction markets, with some lawmakers proposing to expand the definition of transactions based on insider information to include political betting platforms.