The intelligence services in Latvia have issued a warning about possible military provocations from Russia against the Baltic states or Poland, without anticipating a large-scale military invasion.
Analyzing the situation, Latvian officials emphasize that Russia is focused on the war in Ukraine, which limits its capacity to open a new front. A source from another NATO state confirms this information, suggesting that the Kremlin may test the solidarity of allies through hybrid or limited attacks. Scenarios include missile or drone strikes aimed at creating internal tensions within the Alliance. Experts point out that the available information is more limited than before the 2022 invasion, but emphasize that Moscow will seek ways to disrupt current trends.
Additionally, recent developments in Belarus add a new layer of tension in the region, with Ukrainian threats against Russian infrastructure.
Sources
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