ANALYSIS How the local elections of 2026 redraw the political map of France and the stakes of the presidential elections of 2027

The local elections of 2026 have redrawn the political map of France, but have rather confirmed fragmentation than the clear dominance of a single camp: the left is consolidating control in the major metropolises, the classic right remains very strong in the territory, and the far right is slowly expanding its influence in small and medium-sized towns, without breaking through the walls of the major cities. Only by looking at this local landscape can we assess who enters with real chances in the presidential elections of 2027 – Rassemblement National or a candidate from the left or moderate right – however, for now, neither camp starts with a decisive advantage.

The local elections of 2026: what the second round changed

The municipal election took place in two rounds, on March 15 and 22, described by Reuters and BBC as "an essential test" ahead of next year's presidential elections. The second round clarified the power configuration at the top: in Paris, the Socialist Party candidate, Emmanuel Grégoire, won the mayoralty and extended the left's dominance in the capital, while in Marseille, Benoît Payan, also a socialist, was narrowly re-elected against the Rassemblement National candidate.

Le Monde and Reuters note that the left managed to retain other major urban centers, such as Lyon or Lille, often through alliances between socialists, ecologists, and La France Insoumise between the two rounds. In Bordeaux, the presidential party Renaissance took the mayoralty from the Greens, and in Toulouse, right-wing mayor Jean Luc Moudenc was re-elected, showing that the urban landscape is not monolithically leftist, but remains hostile to the far right.

At the same time, Rassemblement National achieved a significant victory in Nice, where its ally Éric Ciotti won against the center-right, and consolidated control over bastions such as Perpignan or Fréjus, as well as over several small and medium-sized towns in the south and "peripheral France." Reuters summarizes this outcome as "mixed results": without the "image blow" in a major metropolis, but with the highest number of mayoralties ever held by the far right.

Les Républicains, the classic right, emerge from the locals with their networks intact. Le Monde shows that the party won directly, even in the first round, dozens of important municipalities and remained decisive in many wealthy suburbs and medium-sized towns. In Le Havre, former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe obtained over 43% in the first round and confirmed his mandate in the second round, which strengthens his profile as a potential compromise candidate for 2027, as Reuters emphasizes.

The left: fortified urban bastions, but limited territory

The major cities remain the main advantage of the left. According to Le Monde, Emmanuel Grégoire entered the second round in Paris with a comfortable lead, after a first round in which he surpassed 36–38%, and was ultimately confirmed against the conservative Rachida Dati, the Les Républicains candidate, and representatives of the center. PBS and Reuters note that Grégoire's victory is interpreted as a vote for continuity for progressive policies in the fields of environment and public services, despite challenges related to traffic and construction.

In Marseille, Benoît Payan managed to block the rise of Rassemblement National, benefiting from the withdrawal of the La France Insoumise candidate between rounds, which reconstituted, at least locally, a "republican front" between moderate left and radical left against the far right. Le Monde and Al Jazeera emphasize that the same mechanism – united lists or tacit agreements between the left and center – also worked in other university towns in the west, such as Nantes or Rennes.

However, this urban force has limits. Analyses by Le Monde and Reuters show that the Socialist Party and its allies remain weak in many rural areas and in small towns, where central themes are immigration, security, and the quality of public services, and Rassemblement National and the classic right have more favorable ground. The left sometimes manages to recover mayoralties through united lists and very socially anchored campaigns, but these gains are isolated and do not change the overall balance in the territory.

The classic right: strong local network, fragile national leadership

Les Républicains confirm themselves as the "party of mayors," even though at the national level they remain under electoral pressure. Le Monde shows that the classic right won directly in the first round 42 large municipalities and entered the second round in over 80 others, including in cities like Cannes, Meaux, or prosperous localities in the Paris area. In the second round, many of these mayors were reconfirmed, which, according to Reuters, gives the moderate right access to resources, networks, and local legitimacy that neither RN nor the presidential party can match yet.

The case of Le Havre is emblematic. In the port city of Normandy, Édouard Philippe won with almost 44% in the first round and was confirmed without emotion in the second round, after he explicitly linked his political future to re-election. Reuters reminds that Philippe publicly stated that he cannot aspire to the Élysée if he does not maintain legitimacy in front of his own local electorate, which makes the result in Le Havre a central piece in discussions about a possible moderate candidacy in 2027.

Overall, however, Le Monde and BBC emphasize that these local successes do not automatically produce "a right-wing Macron": Les Républicains remains internally fragmented, between traditional Gaullists, former Macronists, and local leaders with their own agendas. The locals confirm the strength of the networks, but do not yet deliver a single leader to unify the camp.

The far right: between the atmosphere of "new right" and the wall of major cities

For Rassemblement National, the municipal stakes were to show that it has surpassed the status of a protest party and can govern cities. Reuters reminds that Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella's formation treated these elections as a decisive step in building a "local momentum" for the presidential elections of 2027.

After the first round, RN already claimed "a historic victory," invoking the re-election in Perpignan and gains in small towns, but the second round tempered this narrative.

Politico notes that, following the two rounds, Rassemblement National and its allies increase the number of mayoralties – especially in the Mediterranean south and in "peripheral France" – and can rightly speak of a consolidated local presence. At the same time, Le Monde and Reuters show that the party missed most of the symbolic stakes in medium and large towns, and in many cases was blocked by alliances between the left and moderate right.

In Nice, RN ally Éric Ciotti wins with a clear lead, transforming an old bastion of the classic right into a laboratory for the new radicalized right. However, in Marseille and Toulon, two of RN's major stakes, the far right candidates enter strongly in the first round but lose in the end against center and left coalitions. New York Times and Le Monde summarize the situation as follows: the far right "falls short of expectations" in major cities and remains predominantly an actor in small and medium towns.

The power map: where voters changed the camp

If we look at the map, the local elections of 2026 show some visible shifts in traditional strongholds. Le Monde and Euronews note that, in Nice and other southern cities, there is a shift from moderate right to radical right, against the backdrop of competition between Les Républicains and Rassemblement National. In Marseille, on the other hand, a city with a leftist tradition, part of the center and right electorate is reorienting towards RN, but the left alliance is managing, for now, to retain the mayoralty.

There are also reverse movements: in some medium-sized towns and suburban areas, united left lists manage to snatch mayoralties from the classic right or block the advance of Rassemblement National, speculating on discontent related to the cost of living, transport, and access to public services. Reuters and Le Monde emphasize that Les Républicains, despite these point losses, still win directly many mayoralties even in the first round, indicating that where mayors are perceived as efficient, the electorate prefers continuity.

The final picture can be summarized as follows: the major French metropolises are predominantly coloring in red and green (the Socialist Party, the Greens, and their allies), medium-sized towns and part of the periphery remain or shift to the blue of Les Républicains, while in the "neck" of small towns and tense rural areas, Rassemblement National paints more and more dark blue spots. It is not an electoral revolution, but a densification of the borders between political blocks.

From mayoralties to Élysée: what the locals say about the chances in 2027

Only after this local snapshot does the discussion about the presidential elections of 2027 become coherent. Politico shows that Rassemblement National used the evening of the first round to convey the message that "the local vote confirms national momentum" and that the re-election and winning more mayoralties demonstrate the party's ability to govern, not just to criticize. Reuters and other outlets confirm that Jordan Bardella speaks openly about the "advantage" for 2027, relying on RN's scores in the south and in medium-sized towns.

Substantively, polls analyzed by Reuters and other international publications still place Jordan Bardella very high in voting intentions, including as a favorite in some second-round scenarios against moderate right or center candidates. This suggests, as Le Monde notes, that the "eligibility barrier" that blocked the far right for decades has begun to crack.

However, both Le Monde and Reuters warn that the municipal results also highlight the limits of RN. The fact that Rassemblement National fails to conquer major cities and is blocked in many places by alliances between the left and moderate right suggests that, in the second round of the presidential elections, a significant part of the urban and educated electorate may mobilize against Jordan Bardella, even if they are not enthusiastic about the opposing candidate.

On the left, the local elections show that the Socialist Party and its allies can win and maintain major cities, which gives them an important urban base for the 2027 campaign. At the same time, Le Monde emphasizes that there is still no single left candidate with presidential stature, and the internal competition between socialists, La France Insoumise, and the Greens risks fragmenting the vote in the first round.

The moderate right and the presidential center enter the race for 2027 with a major asset: a dense network of mayors and local elected officials, confirmed by the results from 2026. Reuters notes that, theoretically, a candidacy like Édouard Philippe's, supported by part of the center and Les Républicains, could reconstitute a moderate front capable of entering the second round and defeating Rassemblement National, but so far no clear agreement has emerged in this direction.

In summary, the local elections of 2026 send a double message for 2027: on one hand, Rassemblement National has, for the first time, real chances in the presidential elections, confirmed by polls and symbolically reinforced by local gains; on the other hand, the municipal results show that the far right has not yet conquered the urban heart of France and that a strong candidacy – either from a regrouped left or from a unified moderate right – could still defeat it in the second round.

Analysis conducted with the support of Perplexity