EPC analysis: Rassemblement National is voting less and less like the EPP in the European Parliament, despite moving closer to the ECR

The EPC–Eulytix analysis indicates a decline in the coincidence of RN votes with the EPP compared with the previous parliamentary term and a shift closer to ECR. The authors distinguish between the change in the party’s image in France and its behavior in the European Parliament; the percentages describe the roll-call votes analyzed, not a political alliance.

Rassemblement National (RN), the French far-right party associated with Marine Le Pen, votes in the same direction as the European People’s Party (EPP) group less often than in the previous parliamentary term, although it has moved closer to the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR). The analysis published on October 22 by the European Policy Centre (EPC) and Eulytix shows that the change in the party’s image in France is not accompanied by a comparable shift toward the European political center.

In brief

The EPC–Eulytix text reports a decline in the coincidence of RN votes with the EPP from 41% in 2019–2024 to just under 34% after the 2024 elections. The analysis concerns roll-call votes on amendments and final texts.

Coincidence with ECR rose from 56% to 69%, but the authors report the same current level for ESN, the group to which AfD belongs. Moving closer to conservatives does not amount to a departure from the radical right.

The distance from the EPP varies considerably by issue: the table shows 4% for multilateral trade and 9% for climate, but 97% for macro-financial assistance to third countries.

RN votes in the same direction as the majority of Parliament in 35.1% of the cases analyzed. For Fratelli d’Italia, before entering government, the proportion was 49.8%; the comparison concerns different periods.

The first chart presents the medians of national delegations, not the same indicator as the group percentages in the text. The results are attributed to the authors and concern selected roll-call votes, without demonstrating an alliance or the evolution of a future government.Eric Maurice, an analyst at the EPC, and Attila Kovács, Director General of Eulytix, examined roll-call votes on amendments and final texts in the European Parliament during the period 2019–2026. They compare the RN delegation with political groups and national parties, tracking both the change between parliamentary terms and differences between policy areas.

In the analysis, the authors report a decline in the coincidence of RN votes with the EPP from 41% in the 2019–2024 parliamentary term to just under 34% in the period analyzed after the 2024 elections. In the opposite direction, coincidence with ECR increased from 56% to 69%, by 13 percentage points. The quarterly trends in the chart covering the years 2019–2026 follow the same directions, although the values fluctuate from one quarter to another.

However, the authors believe that moving closer to ECR does not separate RN from the other radical-right formations. The text also reports 69% for coincidence with Europe of Sovereign Nations (ESN), the group to which AfD belongs. When ECR and ESN vote alike, RN joins them in 82% of cases. When the two groups take different positions, the French delegation votes like ESN in 44% of cases and like ECR in 40%; in the remaining 16%, it follows neither of the two positions.

The differences are visible across policy areas. RN is closer to ESN on enlargement, conflicts in third countries, and security and defense, while ECR is the closer reference point on gender equality, privacy and data protection, and competition. In the table by policy area, RN’s coincidence with the EPP is 4% on multilateral trade agreements, 7% on EU values, 9% on climate, 13% on conflicts in third countries, 18% on enlargement, and 19% on energy.

The distance is not uniform. The same table indicates 97% coincidence between RN and the EPP on macro-financial assistance to third countries, a category for which 32 votes are presented. For agricultural policy, the proportion is 64%, and for housing 65%. The percentages measure positions in the votes included in each category; they do not show that the parties have identical programs and do not represent an overall score of support for the EU.

RN is part of Patriots for Europe (PfE), a group formed in 2024. The authors report 81% coincidence with the other PfE delegations and figures of 78% with Chega and Vlaams Belang, 76% with Konfederacja, 75% with Lega, and 74% with Vox. The figures for ANO and Fidesz are lower, at 69% and 66%, respectively. Maurice and Kovács also interpret the differences through the lens of governmental responsibilities, which may encourage acceptance of European compromises.

Nor is the move closer to ECR led by RN, according to the authors’ comparison. The other five delegations tracked that belonged both to the former Identity and Democracy group and to PfE increased their coincidence with ECR by an average of 18 percentage points. RN ranks fifth among the six delegations compared. Within ECR, the text indicates a greater degree of convergence with PiS, at 69%, than with Fratelli d’Italia, at 66%, or the New Flemish Alliance, at 51%.

The comparison with Giorgia Meloni’s party is important for the political question addressed by the analysis: would RN undergo a similar adaptation after gaining power? Between 2019 and 2022, before leading the Italian government, Fratelli d’Italia voted like the EPP in 58% of the cases analyzed. Its coincidence with the majority of Parliament was 49.8%, compared with 35.1% for RN in the current period. This last indicator means voting in the same direction as the majority, not supporting a permanent coalition.

There is an important distinction between the published indicators. The first chart shows the distribution of national delegations within each group, and the marked values are medians: 77% for PfE delegations excluding RN, 69% for ESN, 67% for ECR, and 35% for the EPP. These values are not the same indicator as the percentages reported for groups in the text. The publication does not provide the full set of votes and all the aggregation details needed to reproduce the calculations.

According to the European Parliament’s explanations, roll-call votes make it possible to consult the position of each MEP, but they do not include all forms of voting or the negotiations preceding the plenary session. Groups bring together members based on political affinity, without being able to force them to vote in a particular way. The behavior of the RN delegation should therefore not be confused with identical discipline among all members or with a formal alliance with another group.

Maurice and Kovács conclude that the experience of Fratelli d’Italia does not justify assuming an automatic shift by RN toward the European political center. They believe that a possible Le Pen presidency could make compromises within the EU more difficult, even if the party were to struggle to secure support for its own priorities. This is the authors’ interpretation of the votes observed, not a certain prediction of the 2027 French elections or of the decisions of a future government.

https://2eu.brussels/ro/news/rassemblement-national-voteaza-cu-ppe-in-mai-putin-de-34-din-cazuri-arata-o-analiza-a-voturilor-din-parlamentul-european