ANALYSIS Who leads Iran after the killing of Khamenei and why Khomeini's grandson becomes a central piece in the struggle for succession

The assassination of Ali Khamenei, in the midst of a war with the USA and Israel, has opened the most serious succession crisis in the history of the Islamic Republic. While an interim council of three people manages the crisis, the battle for the position of supreme leader focuses between candidates supported by the Guardians of the Revolution and the symbolic figure of Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the republic's founder, while one of the favorites, Mojtaba Khamenei, is said to have been killed along with his father.

An interim regime: what does the Constitution say

The violent death of Khamenei, following American-Israeli airstrikes, has eliminated not only the supreme leader but also part of his inner circle, turning the succession into a systemic crisis. Article 111 of the Iranian Constitution states that when the position of supreme leader becomes vacant, its duties temporarily pass to an Interim Leadership Council until a new rahbar is elected by the Assembly of Experts.

The Assembly of Experts – 88 elected clerics, but filtered by the Guardians Council – has the obligation to appoint "as soon as possible" a new leader, without a clear deadline, which creates space for blockages and opaque negotiations. Meanwhile, the Guardians of the Revolution (IRGC) are pressing for a quick decision, fearing the appearance of a power vacuum at a time of regional military escalation.

Who leads Iran after Khamenei's killing

Thus, after the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in an American-Israeli attack, the duties of Supreme Leader have been taken over by an Interim Leadership Council, as provided by Article 111 of the Iranian Constitution. The council was established on March 1, 2026, and is composed of President Masoud Pezeshkian, head of the judiciary Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei, and Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, a senior cleric from the Guardians Council and a member of the Expediency Council.

This council is, de facto, the highest authority of the state until the Assembly of Experts elects a new Supreme Leader, its mandate being explicitly temporary. In practical terms, however, decisions regarding security and regional politics remain deeply influenced by the Guardians of the Revolution (IRGC), which controls the most powerful military structure and a vast economic conglomerate, even though their command is partially decapitated by Israeli attacks. How the succession mechanism works

The Assembly of Experts, composed of 88 high-ranking clerics, has a constitutional mandate to name Khamenei's successor "as soon as possible."

In practice, however, the selection is decided in small circles – top figures of the religious establishment, IRGC leadership, key figures from the Guardians Council and the Expediency Council – and the Assembly later formalizes the consensus.

The current crisis occurs against the backdrop of a regional war, with Israeli airstrikes on Tehran and the expansion of the conflict in Lebanon, which puts pressure for a quick decision, but also for a leader profile that maintains internal cohesion.

At the same time, Washington signals that "possible new leaderships" would be left to understand the willingness for dialogue, but key Iranian advisors publicly reject the idea of negotiations with President Donald Trump, reinforcing the logic of a successor perceived as tough in relation to the USA, but pragmatic enough to manage sanctions and social discontent.

Why Hassan Khomeini becomes a central piece

Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the founder of the Islamic Republic and custodian of the mausoleum in southern Tehran, is the most visible of the 15 grandchildren of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini and is perceived as a relatively moderate cleric. At 53, he has never held a government position, but he has a strong symbolic position and close ties with former reformist presidents Mohammed Khatami and Hassan Rouhani, who promoted policies of opening towards the West.

His public profile combines declared loyalty to the system with pointed criticisms of the excesses of the oversight institutions: he contested the Guardians Council's decision to exclude reformist candidates from the 2021 presidential elections and called for transparency after the death of Mahsa Amini, highlighting the responsibility of the authorities.

At the same time, Khomeini condemned the chants against Khamenei and, in the protests of December and January, aligned himself with the pro-government campaign, accusing some of the protesters of serving Israel's interests and comparing the violence to the actions of the Islamic State.

For some elites, this combination makes him a rare compromise: he is loyal enough not to undermine the theocratic system, but open enough to reintroduce a dose of legitimacy in the eyes of a society exhausted by sanctions, repression, and economic crisis. His previous support for the 2015 nuclear deal and sensitivity to the social costs of sanctions are invoked by politicians who see in a "moderate leader" a way to preserve the Islamic Republic through adaptation, not through permanent hardline enforcement.

Who are the candidates being discussed, after the alleged death of Khamenei's son

The death of Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Ali Khamenei, confirmed by Iranian and Israeli sources, has immediately eliminated the scenario of a semi-dynastic succession, in which the son would gradually take over levers of power until the formal appointment. CNN, Reuters, and other international media analyses show that the shortlist of candidates discussed in power circles now looks different: the core consists of conservative clerics with varied profiles, from technocrats of the system to hardline ideologues.

Among the most frequently mentioned names are:

Alireza Arafi, a member of the Guardians Council and a member of the interim council, has a reputation as an efficient administrator, Arabic and English speaker, with a relatively discreet political profile, but well anchored in institutions; his ties to the IRGC seem limited, making him less attractive to the hard core of the security apparatus.

Mohammad Mehdi Mirbagheri – an ultra-conservative cleric, a member of the Assembly of Experts, known for radical statements about mass sacrifice that would "bring humanity closer to God," a symbol of the inflexible ideological wing.

Hashem Hosseini Bushehri – a senior cleric, first deputy of the president of the Assembly of Experts, very well connected to religious structures, but with a low public profile and without visible ties to the IRGC.

Sadegh Larijani – former head of the judiciary, with a conservative doctrinal profile and experience in top structures, but associated, including in the international press, with human rights abuses, which reduces his potential to regain internal legitimacy.

Mohsen Araki – a cleric close to Khamenei, mentioned in analyses as an option for the traditionalist conservative wing, with a firm anti-Western discourse and connections to religious influence networks inside and outside Iran.

Hassan Khomeini – the grandson of the founder, with strong symbolic capital, but, as noted by CNN and Reuters, with reduced influence over the security apparatus and precedents of exclusion from internal competitions (candidacy rejected at the Assembly of Experts).

By eliminating Mojtaba Khamenei, the balance rearranges: the IRGC loses its preferred option for personal continuity and must negotiate among profiles with varying degrees of loyalty and predictability. At the same time, for the moderate camp, the disappearance of the dynastic scenario opens a small space for pushing forward a name like Hassan Khomeini or a compromise formula in which he plays a legitimizing role, even if he does not become Supreme Leader.

In this landscape, Hassan Khomeini is an "outlier" with symbolic weight: he is included by some Western analyses on the shortlist of options considered by Khamenei himself, alongside his chief of staff Ali Asghar Hejazi and Mohseni Ejei. However, the same type of sources close to the opposition in exile suggest that he is at the same time "very unlikely" to be elected, precisely because he has been systematically excluded from the upper echelon – especially through the Guardians Council's decision to block his candidacy for the Assembly of Experts.

Why the battle for succession matters

While Israel strikes in Lebanon and inside Iran, transforming the crisis into a prolonged regional conflict, the choice of Khamenei's successor will determine whether Tehran remains on a maximal confrontation line or attempts a recalibrated pragmatism.

A Supreme Leader closely tied to the IRGC, with a hard ideological profile, would consolidate a regime less permeable to external pressures, but also more dependent on internal repression, with additional economic costs. In contrast, a profile close to that of Hassan Khomeini – anchored in founding mythology, but open to gradual reform and international re-engagement – could be used by the establishment to negotiate a controlled de-escalation, without abandoning the theocratic architecture.

For now, however, the power architecture remains fragmented: the interim council ensures formal continuity, the IRGC manages the military response, and the Assembly of Experts prepares to validate a compromise that, regardless of the name, will have to respond simultaneously to a dual crisis – of regional security and internal legitimacy.

Synthesis made with the help of a data monitoring flow provided by the media monitoring platform NewsVibe Romania. The presented analysis has been enhanced with the help of Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence tools.

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