ANALYSIS "Sinners" versus "One Battle After Another": the big bets, hidden surprises and how the Oscars 2026 are being redrawn

The 2026 Oscar Awards are shaping up to be a direct confrontation between two titles – "Sinners" and "One Battle After Another" – with several very dangerous outsiders in almost all major categories. Predictions from major American publications indicate a possible lead for "Sinners", but also a real chance for Paul Thomas Anderson to finally leave his definitive mark on the Academy with "One Battle After Another".

Best Picture: the big duel

Aggregate predictions from Variety, Hollywood Reporter, Entertainment Weekly, IndieWire, and Vanity Fair converge towards a clear front-runner: "Sinners", credited as the favorite for Best Picture. "One Battle After Another" is perceived as the main challenger, supported by both critics and a solid package of nominations, while "Hamnet", "Sentimental Value", and "Marty Supreme" remain compromise options if the vote fragments.

Main competitors for Best Picture and their relative chances (press trend):

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Best Director: leading authors

Variety and Hollywood Reporter indicate a clear favorite for directing: Paul Thomas Anderson ("One Battle After Another"), with Ryan Coogler ("Sinners"), Chloé Zhao ("Hamnet"), Joachim Trier ("Sentimental Value"), and Josh Safdie ("Marty Supreme") in the immediate following pack. Anderson has the classic "overdue" profile – a beloved author who has yet to win directing – while Coogler could make history as the first Black director to win the Oscar for directing if the "Sinners" wave becomes unstoppable.

Actors: tight races, big names

Best Actor

Variety and predictions from Vanity Fair and EW describe a very tight race, with Michael B. Jordan ("Sinners"), Timothée Chalamet ("Marty Supreme"), and Leonardo DiCaprio ("One Battle After Another") in the lead, plus a possible "late surge" for Wagner Moura from an auteur title. Jordan benefits from the "film favorite for Best Picture" effect and a classic Oscar role, Chalamet has the advantage of young voters and a metatextual character, while DiCaprio comes with the aura of a veteran in an event film directed by Anderson.

Best Actress

In the female category, all major publications are talking about a "runaway race" for Jessie Buckley, for her role in "Hamnet", with Kate Hudson ("Song Sung Blue") and Rose Byrne ("If I Had Legs I'd Kick You") in the following positions. Buckley is gathering rare critical superlatives ("standout performance of the year") and appeals to both art-house voters and traditional ones, making her defeat considered a surprise.

Best Supporting Actor

Variety and BBC mention an intense competition between Delroy Lindo ("Sinners"), Sean Penn, and Benicio del Toro (both from "One Battle After Another"), plus Stellan Skarsgård ("Sentimental Value"). Lindo benefits from the perennial aura of "under-rewarded great actor" and the fact that he is in a film considered a front-runner, while Penn already has his share of statuettes and could be "penalized" by a vote that wants to distribute honors.

Best Supporting Actress

Variety and Vanity Fair anticipate the most unpredictable field of this year: Teyana Taylor ("One Battle After Another"), Amy Madigan ("Weapons"), Wunmi Mosaku ("Sinners"), plus the duo Elle Fanning / Ines Lilleaas from "Sentimental Value". Teyana Taylor seems to be a step ahead, following the Globes and a wave of critical enthusiasm, but Mosaku comes with an important BAFTA, while Madigan is the obvious favorite of "actors who reward their eccentric colleagues".

Screenplays: original and adapted

Best Original Screenplay

Based on aggregate lists, "Sinners", "One Battle After Another", "Sentimental Value", and "Marty Supreme" are considered the main candidates, in a category where, traditionally, either formal boldness or a new voice is rewarded. If "Sinners" wins Best Picture, the original screenplay could become the "consolation prize" for Anderson or Trier, especially if the Academy decides to distribute the trophies between film, directing, and writing.

Best Adapted Screenplay

"Hamnet" is seen as the favorite in adapted, benefiting from the prestige of the source novel and a duo Zhao-Buckley that dominates discussions of authorship and acting. "Frankenstein", "The Secret Agent", and "Bugonia" line up as credible alternatives, especially if the technical branches push up the global vote for their films.

Technical categories: the long arm of "Sinners"

Cinematography, editing, sound

"Sinners" and "One Battle After Another" are projected to dominate cinematography and editing, with "Frankenstein" and "Train Dreams" as serious rivals in cinematography and sound, respectively. Entertainment Weekly and Hollywood Reporter place "Sinners" as the favorite for editing – a classic indicator for Best Picture – while "One Battle After Another" could compensate with a strong package of editing and sound design if it loses the big trophy.

Production, costumes, makeup

"Frankenstein" is unanimously credited as the front-runner for production design and makeup, with "Bugonia" and "The Secret Agent" seen as alternatives in the costume and period production areas. At the same time, "Hamnet" could overturn predictions in the costume category if the wave of sympathy for Zhao's film spreads beyond the art-house core.

Visual effects, animation, music

"Frankenstein" and a sci-fi blockbuster ("F1", mentioned by EW) are seen as the main favorites for visual effects, in a year where voters seem to prefer projects with stylistic ambition over generic CG. In animation, IndieWire and Variety mention a strong original title (not going into spoiler detail here), while in original music, "Sinners" and "Sentimental Value" consistently appear in critics' top lists.

Documentary, international film, short films

Outside the "major categories", critical consensus indicates a politically impactful documentary and an auteur European title as favorites, but here traditionally appear the "Sunday night surprises". The international film category is dominated by a well-known auteur (Kleber Mendonça Filho or Jafar Panahi, depending on the campaign lines), but "Sentimental Value" could capture some attention as it is heavily used in promo as a "bridge" between European cinema and Hollywood.

Window of opportunity: where surprises can happen

Analysts cited by Hollywood Reporter and Vanity Fair draw attention to three areas with high potential for overturning: lead actor, supporting actress, and original screenplay. If the vote polarizes between "Sinners" and "One Battle After Another", it is plausible that one takes Best Picture + editing, while the other compensates with directing + screenplay + supporting acting. In such scenarios, films like "Hamnet" or "Frankenstein" can benefit to secure dominance in the technical and auteur "shelf".

Synopses

Sinners – A moral and social thriller about a group of people forced to confront complicity in a corrupt system, where structural violence and personal salvation collide in a devastating finale.

One Battle After Another – A hybrid of action, crime, and black comedy by Paul Thomas Anderson, following an anti-hero and his circle of accomplices as they literally "go from one battle to another", against the backdrop of a city in moral collapse.

Hamnet – An auteur adaptation of the eponymous novel, imagining the life of Shakespeare's wife and son, transforming grief and family relationships into an intense meditation on identity and art.

Sentimental Value – A European drama about a broken family that reunites to share an emotional and material inheritance, where old secrets come to light and ties are rewritten at the boundary between tenderness and cruelty.

Marty Supreme – A metacinematic dramedy about a young director trying to finish his dream film while gradually becoming the main character of his own Hollywood farce.

Frankenstein – A contemporary re-reading of the classic myth, shifting the creator-creature experiment into a current technological and political context, questioning how power rewrites the boundaries of humanity.

Bugonia – An absurdly toned satire with social horror accents, where a group of privileged individuals isolates themselves in a villa to "experience nature", only to discover that the real danger comes from within.

The Secret Agent – An art political thriller focused on an undercover agent caught between national loyalties and personal life, developed in an intimate and contemplative key, typical of auteur cinema.

Train Dreams – A contemplative drama set in a rural landscape, about a man haunted by memories and losses, where train journeys become a metaphor for the passage of time and guilt.

Song Sung Blue – An intimate and nostalgic musical, centered around a singer in mid-life, who reconstructs her career and identity through a new repertoire and her complicated relationship with the audience and family.

Analysis conducted with the support of Perplexity