Ursula von der Leyen presents her State of the Union speech today. Seven topics that the President of the European Commission will address (POLITICO)

Ursula von der Leyen will deliver her sixth State of the European Union address on Wednesday, at a time when the bloc is facing wars, wildfires and a difficult relationship with U.S. President Donald Trump.

The President of the European Commission has tied her political legacy to the goal of making Europe more independent and more capable of acting in a world she considers increasingly dangerous. In the speech, she is expected to explain how this effort is progressing and what the next steps are.

The speech will be revised and rewritten until the moment it is delivered. However, based on discussions with more than a dozen European officials, who were granted anonymity to discuss the president’s priorities and key points, POLITICO’s editorial team learned which topics she will address.

Artificial intelligence

Artificial intelligence (AI) was the main topic of the Commission’s Tervuren meeting at the beginning of this month, when the speech was planned. It is significant that the Commission’s special adviser for industrial AI applications, Siemens President Jim Hagemann Snabe, was also present that day.

Von der Leyen’s team asked the Commission’s relevant policy units to provide updated statistics for the speech on the number of jobs that could be lost and created as AI adoption expands, according to one official familiar with the closed-door discussions.

Competitiveness

Two years after former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s landmark report on ways to restore the continent’s competitiveness, von der Leyen is expected to take stock of her Commission’s efforts to tackle Europe’s economic crisis by simplifying bureaucracy.

She is expected to speak about a “general clean-up” in regulation and the principle of “simplicity from the design stage,” a senior European official said.

Climate

According to the POLITICO article, climate will be the main theme of this year’s speech. The focus on climate comes as von der Leyen’s Commission attempts to defend its emissions-reduction target for 2040, while also responding to growing pressure from industry and national capitals to limit the economic cost of the green transition.

Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra told POLITICO that the EC wants to ensure that planning is “integrated” throughout the policymaking process at European and national level, meaning that climate resilience would be taken into account at every stage of decision-making on infrastructure investment, legislation and much more.

Trade

In her 2023 speech, Ursula von der Leyen announced that Brussels was launching an investigation into subsidies for Chinese electric vehicles. The measure prompted a retaliatory response from Beijing, targeting European exports such as pork and cognac.

This time it will not be the same, according to one official, and von der Leyen will not announce another investigation. Beijing will not occupy a very prominent place in the speech, although she is expected to stress the need for the EU to accelerate diversification efforts and may go so far as to explicitly mention the diversification instrument proposed by the Commission.

Migration

Von der Leyen’s speech comes in the wake of the crisis in Ceuta, where tens of thousands of migrants entered Spanish territory, causing waves of political shock across the bloc over the summer.

Von der Leyen is expected to use her speech to call for the strengthening of Frontex, the EU agency for border management. This includes tripling the number of European border and coast guards to 30,000, from approximately 7,800 currently, as well as a possible expansion of Frontex’s mandate and powers, according to the three officials, which would allow the agency to play a role in so-called return hubs in third countries.

However, the most controversial idea being considered for the speech, according to a senior diplomat and an EU official, is a European framework for situations of massive migratory pressure, allowing certain asylum rules to be suspended and faster returns to take place.

Defense

Defense and security are also expected to feature prominently in the speech, given that the long-awaited Security Strategy is scheduled for early October.

Initially, the strategy was due to be presented after the NATO summit in Ankara in July, and its postponement fuels expectations that von der Leyen will use her speech to preview the document, presenting some of its key ideas and priorities in advance.

Social media

Von der Leyen has confirmed that she will use her speech to unveil plans for age restrictions on social media, with a legislative proposal potentially being presented on the same day. There are many difficult questions she will have to answer, including what the minimum age will be and whether she will allow EU countries to set their own age limit.

It is also likely that the EC will extend age restrictions to other services, such as gaming platforms and artificial intelligence-based chatbots.

The State of the Union address, known by the acronym SOTEU, is the main annual occasion on which the head of the EU executive presents her priorities and political direction for Europe.