Economists surveyed by the ECB estimate inflation at 3% in 2026 and revise up their euro area growth forecast

Economists participating in the European Central Bank’s quarterly survey raised their estimate for euro area inflation in 2026 to 3%, from 2.7% in the previous round, amid an increase in energy prices considered more persistent. At the same time, they anticipate economic growth of 1%, compared with 0.6% in the summer survey. The results published on October 30 thus outline an economy that has withstood conditions better than estimated, but in which price pressures are fading more slowly.

In brief

Participating economists estimate inflation at 3% in 2026 and 2.6% in 2027, above the summer forecasts. A return to 2% is anticipated for 2028.

Estimated economic growth for 2026 rises from 0.6% to 1%, largely due to better recent data. A rate of 1.3% is anticipated for 2027 and 2028.

Inflation excluding energy and food would remain above 2% through 2028 inclusive. Risks to prices are tilted to the upside, while those to growth are tilted to the downside.

Unemployment is estimated at 6.4% in 2026 and would fall to 6.2% in 2028. Compensation per employee would increase by 3.3% in 2026 and by 2.8% in 2028.

The 52 responses were collected between October 2 and 7. They are the views of the specialists consulted, not a new ECB forecast or a decision on interest rates.

Survey of Professional Forecasters brings together assessments from specialists at financial and non-financial institutions. The fourth-quarter round received 52 responses, collected between October 2 and 7. It preceded the ECB’s monetary policy decision of October 29 and represents neither a new forecast by the central bank’s experts nor a commitment regarding the path of interest rates.

In the participants’ new baseline scenario, annual inflation measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices would be 2.6% in 2027 and 2% in 2028. For 2027, the revision compared with the previous survey is 0.4 percentage points, larger than the 0.3-point adjustment for 2026. The estimate for 2028 remained unchanged.

Energy explains an important part of the change. Participants believe that the energy shock will persist longer and will also pass through to other prices via production and transport costs. The risks they associate with inflation are tilted to the upside over the entire 2026–2028 period, meaning they see a greater danger of prices rising above the baseline scenario than falling below it.

Pressures are not limited to energy. For inflation excluding energy and food, the average estimates are 2.4% in 2026, 2.5% in 2027 and 2.2% in 2028. Compared with the previous round, the forecast for this indicator increased by 0.2 percentage points for 2027 and by 0.1 points for 2028. Its persistence shows why a return of headline inflation to 2% would not immediately eliminate all pressures in the economy.

In the long term, at the 2031 horizon, expected inflation remains at 2%, in line with the ECB’s target. This stability concerns the rate of price increases, not a return of prices to their pre-inflation-increase levels. A lower rate of inflation means that prices rise more slowly.

The revision to economic growth has a different explanation. For 2026, the estimate for real GDP rises to 1%, largely due to better recent economic data and their effect on the annual average. This does not amount to an expectation of an acceleration of the same magnitude in each of the following quarters.

Participants see growth of 1.3% in both 2027 and 2028. The estimate for 2027 is 0.1 percentage points above that in the previous round, while the estimate for 2028 has not changed. In the long term, the anticipated rate rises to 1.3%, from 1.2%. Risks to economic activity nevertheless remain tilted to the downside, in contrast to those concerning inflation.

For the labour market, the survey indicates an unemployment rate of 6.4% in 2026, 6.3% in 2027 and 6.2% in 2028, as a share of the labour force. Only the estimate for 2026 was raised, by 0.1 percentage points. At the 2031 horizon, participants anticipate 6.1%.

Growth in compensation per employee is estimated at 3.3% in 2026, 3.1% in 2027 and 2.8% in 2028. This indicator of labour costs does not represent the net salary received by each employee, nor a guaranteed wage increase. It helps assess how domestic costs could sustain price pressures.

The results leave two questions open for the coming months: how long the increase in energy prices will last and how well the economy will withstand it. The Eurosystem experts’ next projections are scheduled for December 18. They will constitute an exercise distinct from the economists’ survey published now.

https://2eu.brussels/ro/news/economistii-consultati-de-bce-estimeaza-inflatie-de-3-in-2026-si-revizuiesc-in-sus-cresterea-zonei-euro