The rate of non-performing loans decreased to 2.85% in September 2025, but companies are facing an increase in arrears and capitalization deficiencies.

According to the National Bank of Romania's report from December 2025, the quality of the loan portfolio granted to the population has improved, with the non-performing loan (NPL) rate decreasing to 2.85%. Estimates for the next 12 months suggest a constant probability of mortgage loan defaults at 0.2%, while a slight deterioration is expected for consumer loans, reaching 3.2%.

The vulnerabilities in the real estate market remain manageable, with 62% of loans having real estate guarantees. However, the quality of loans granted to the commercial real estate sector is inferior to that for non-financial companies, showing a tendency to deteriorate. By the end of 2024, the number of firms with capitalization deficiencies increased by 8%, and the need for recapitalization was estimated at 160.5 billion lei, equivalent to over 9% of GDP.

Additionally, the volume of non-bank arrears increased by 3.2%, reaching 44 billion lei, indicating a deterioration in financial discipline among companies. In contrast, the household sector has demonstrated adequate resilience, with net wealth increasing (+7.9% in June 2025), providing an important buffer against economic shocks. However, vulnerabilities could be amplified by high inflation and fiscal measures.