The BNR report from December 2025 highlights the systemic risks and economic fragility of Romania, with high twin deficits and modest economic growth.

The report on financial stability published by the BNR in December 2025 shows a tense economic landscape, with major systemic risks, including geopolitical instability and internal macroeconomic imbalances. These vulnerabilities are fueled by external and internal uncertainties, and the banking sector, although resilient, faces a volatile environment. The Romanian economy grew by only 0.3% in Q2 2025, and international forecasts suggest a slowdown in growth between 0.7% and 1% for the current year.

High twin deficits represent a significant internal risk, with a budget deficit of 102.5 billion lei (5.4% of GDP) in the first nine months of the year. Although the adopted fiscal measures will have a limited impact in 2025, the BNR emphasizes the need for fiscal adjustment to stabilize public debt, which has reached 57.2% of GDP, and to reduce external imbalances. Fiscal adjustments are essential for maintaining budgetary stability and for improving the country’s rating.