Cosmin Marinescu, the deputy governor of BNR on inflation: "the most insidious economic threat"

In the meeting on November 12, the National Bank of Romania maintained the key interest rate at 6.5%, considering an annual inflation of 9.8% and a stabilized core inflation at 8.1%. Although food and fuel prices have shown a slight moderation, inflationary pressures remain high. BNR estimates a slow decrease in inflation, but warns that in the first half of next year, the rate will remain above 8%.

On the other hand, Romanian taxation has undergone significant changes, with tax increases affecting the profitability of entrepreneurs. For example, the standard VAT rate will increase to 21% from 2025, and the dividend tax will rise to 16% in 2026. A study shows that the real net profit of an IT company will drastically decrease from 26% in 2019 to below 5%.

In this economic climate, companies need to adopt survival strategies, focusing on active tax planning and cash flow optimization. Although Romania is not entering a recession, a transition period is expected, during which entrepreneurs must make informed decisions and quickly adapt to fiscal and market changes.