The BNR announces that inflation will rise to 9.6% in December 2025, although the previous forecast was 8.8%.

The National Bank of Romania (BNR) has revised its inflation forecast, anticipating a rate of 9.6% in December 2025, compared to the previously estimated 8.8%. In the second part of the forecast horizon, inflation could decrease to 3.7% in December 2026 and to 2.9% in September 2027. Members of the BNR Council emphasized that the inflation outlook has deteriorated, especially in the first part of the forecast, due to the transitional effects of removing the price cap on energy and increasing VAT and excise rates. They mentioned that although inflation will decrease over time, it will remain above previous levels. Additionally, the impact of fiscal measures on consumer demand was highlighted, with significant risks for medium-term inflation expectations. The monetary policy interest rate was maintained at 6.5%.