23 October 09:08
INSCOP Research poll - Voting intention for parliamentary elections | 30.2% of voters would vote for PSD, 21.4% for AUR, 13.2% for PNL, 12.7% for USR, 8.1% for SOS Romania.
Adrian Rusu
Politics
Foto: inscop.ro
The opinion poll was conducted by INSCOP Research, a corporate member of ESOMAR, commissioned by the daily Libertatea.
Parliamentary elections turnout estimate
On a scale from 1 to 10, where 1 means "for sure no" I will vote and 10 "for sure yes" I will vote, 10.5% of Romanians chose 1, 0.9% chose 2, 0.4% chose 3, 1.2% chose 4, 4.7% chose 5, 1.1% chose 6, 3.8% chose 7. 5.4% indicated 8, 3.5% - 9 and 68% - 10.
The percentage of 68% who say they will definitely turn out to vote, coupled with those who have a concrete choice, i.e. choose a candidate from the list in the first round of the presidential election, results in an estimated turnout in the first round of the presidential election of 59.2%.
Voting intention in parliamentary elections
Among those who expressed their preference for a party on the list, regardless of whether they declared that they would or would not come to vote (85.5% of the total sample, error 3.2%), 30.2% of voters would vote for PSD, 21.4% for AUR, 13.2% for PNL, 12.7% for USR, 8.1% for SOS Romania. UDMR would get 3.7%, REPER - 2.5%, PNCR (Romanian National Conservative Party) - 2.3%, PER - 2.1%, PMP - 1.4%, FD - 0.6%. 1.3% say they would vote for an independent, and 0.5% for another party.
Grouped by general political orientation, we find that 31.8% would vote for parties with a radical-populist-suveranist profile (AUR, SOS Romania, PNCR), 30.4% for parties with a right-wing profile (PNL, USR, REPER, FD and PMP), and 30.2% for parties with a left-wing profile (PSD). 7.6% would vote for UDMR, PER, independent candidates or another party.
Data were collected between October 11-18, 2024. Research method: questionnaire interview. The maximum allowable error of the data is ± 2.95% at 95% confidence level.
Parliamentary elections turnout estimate
On a scale from 1 to 10, where 1 means "for sure no" I will vote and 10 "for sure yes" I will vote, 10.5% of Romanians chose 1, 0.9% chose 2, 0.4% chose 3, 1.2% chose 4, 4.7% chose 5, 1.1% chose 6, 3.8% chose 7. 5.4% indicated 8, 3.5% - 9 and 68% - 10.
The percentage of 68% who say they will definitely turn out to vote, coupled with those who have a concrete choice, i.e. choose a candidate from the list in the first round of the presidential election, results in an estimated turnout in the first round of the presidential election of 59.2%.
Voting intention in parliamentary elections
Among those who expressed their preference for a party on the list, regardless of whether they declared that they would or would not come to vote (85.5% of the total sample, error 3.2%), 30.2% of voters would vote for PSD, 21.4% for AUR, 13.2% for PNL, 12.7% for USR, 8.1% for SOS Romania. UDMR would get 3.7%, REPER - 2.5%, PNCR (Romanian National Conservative Party) - 2.3%, PER - 2.1%, PMP - 1.4%, FD - 0.6%. 1.3% say they would vote for an independent, and 0.5% for another party.
Grouped by general political orientation, we find that 31.8% would vote for parties with a radical-populist-suveranist profile (AUR, SOS Romania, PNCR), 30.4% for parties with a right-wing profile (PNL, USR, REPER, FD and PMP), and 30.2% for parties with a left-wing profile (PSD). 7.6% would vote for UDMR, PER, independent candidates or another party.
Data were collected between October 11-18, 2024. Research method: questionnaire interview. The maximum allowable error of the data is ± 2.95% at 95% confidence level.
Sources
Sondaj de opinie INSCOP Research - Alegeri parlamentare. Estimare de prezență și intenții de vot
Sondaj INSCOP la comanda Libertatea. Alegeri parlamentare primele trei locuri: PSD-31,4%, AUR-19,7%, USR-13%. Ce alte partide mai depășesc pragul de 5%
Sondaj INSCOP. Alegeri parlamentare 2024: PSD, primul în preferințele românilor. PNL, abia pe locul 4. Ce alte partide mai depășesc pragul de 5%
Cum se împarte votul la parlamentare. Partidele suveraniste, la egalitate cu cele de dreapta și de stânga
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