After the electoral apocalypse that never was

1. After the exit of Mr. Georgescu, we will have a complete reset of the electoral game, combined with an infinitely greater degree of uncertainty, compared to the situation of uncertainty caused by the invalidation of Diana Sosoaca and which made possible the emergence of Călin Georgescu.

2. Romania got rid of the first candidate in history to be supported on the face, through a press release, by Russia's intelligence service, and this is no small thing because it is an event that will go down in the history books.

3. But Romania has not escaped the challenge of responding honestly and consistently to the economic and social frustrations of almost half of the population, our fellow citizens in parts of the country where not enough wealth has yet arrived from EU membership. These are areas that have massively fueled mass emigration, with all the sometimes dramatic consequences for millions of partially broken families in Romania.

4. Certainly, there will be fewer candidates in the elections on May 4 than in the previous elections on November 24, which will make the debate and the elections somewhat easier to understand and process.

5. The legendary electoral mobilizing power of the party machines is an illusion in presidential elections. Whoever plays that card alone will lose. And if he doesn't believe this, he can sit down for a political tutoring session with Mr. Nicolae Ciucă, Marcel Ciolacu or George Simion, who have been through electoral hell.

6. The impression that voters can be maneuvered in any direction by one person, be it a political guru, is silly. And it would be voter-sanctionable arrogance. It seems that Mr. Georgescu already intuited this when he declared, for tactical reasons and with his own "aura" in mind, that everyone should vote as his conscience dictates.

7. Probably, the official or unofficial successor of Călin Georgescu will qualify for round 2. The competition for the second place in the final will be between 3-4 candidates and is expected to be very close, unpredictable and all the more important as the runner-up in the final has a chance to become the next president of Romania.

8. At this point there are no favorites and no clues about possible trends. Next week we will have more data, but in any case insufficient. By May 4, I expect maximum volatility in voting intention, with permanent week-to-week swings and a denouement postponed until the last hour of the last day.

9. One certainty I like to think we have, however. Romania's brutal reorientation towards Russia is no longer possible. In a country in which 90% of the population does not want to leave the EU and NATO, the presidential aspirants will have already learned their lesson: belonging to the Western world, inscribed in our identity DNA by our founding fathers (the Pashoptists, the Transylvanian School), is still a stronger cult than any political messianism inflated with steroids branded tik-tok-kazacioc.