OPINION: A little clarity, a little optimism

I know that the situation may seem transparent. But I am optimistic. We are starting to have clarity, which is very good and very rare in the Romanian political landscape of recent years.

The biggest risk for trust in the Democratic Regime is the lack of clarity, confusion, uncertainty, the feeling that you don't know who is playing with whom and what is being played. At this moment, after Sunday, we know that PNL is going into opposition, so in the perspective of the next parliamentary elections in 2028, we will no longer have a monopoly of AUR on the opposition and only one alternative for taking over the future government.

A downside of the large PSD-PNL coalition that nevertheless pulled the country out of crisis after the collapse at the end of 2021 when we had a total political conflict between PNL and USR, simultaneously with hundreds of deaths in hospitals due to the pandemic (we recorded then the highest percentage of Romanians declaring that the country was going in the wrong direction - 90%), was the clearing of the ground for the meteoric rise of AUR and similar formations SOS and POT (with 33% cumulative vote in the 2024 elections). From now on, we will overcome this problem because PSD and PNL will be in a relationship of hostility.

If the Veștea government obtains the investiture, we will have another clarity. First of all, we will have a government with full powers that Romania needs like air. Secondly, PSD will be in government in a first violin role and will be able to implement its alternative vision, that is, the reason for the downfall of the Bolojan government. And thirdly, we will clarify how AUR plays.

If the Veștea government does not obtain the investiture, we can go for the scenario of a minority PSD government conditionally voted by PNL (which remains in opposition) with a 6-month moratorium or a minority PNL, USR, UDMR government, with PSD in opposition. So everything is good because AUR will have a serious competitor in social democrats for 2028.

Or, more likely in my opinion, we will reach another solution proposed by President Nicușor Dan. And in this scenario, the president can strengthen himself. In the case of rejection by Parliament of the Veștea proposal, President Nicușor Dan will have exceptional powers because a possible second rejection of a government proposal activates the nuclear option of early elections. So that future government will pass.

And I say this because now, whatever the political discourse of the parties, early elections really are a nuclear option, a catastrophe. One that is part of the democratic political game, but a catastrophe for the country, for the economy, for businesses, for the income of the population.

No party, except for AUR, would benefit from early elections. Not even PNL, which could take a bit more now than in December 2024 (but not much more), would benefit because the country would be handed over for 4 years into the hands of an AUR that has a real possibility of doubling its score and moving from the status of kingmaker to actual king. With a representation in Parliament of 40%, the president will then be forced to grant them the right to form the government. For 4 years. Until 2030.

So, let's be optimistic. In one way or another, with a bit of clarity gained, we will still have a full government.