Donald Trump announces diesel deliveries from Russia, but analysts estimate a limited effect on fuel prices

The agreement announced by U.S. President Donald Trump to deliver 4.8 million tonnes of diesel from Russia would have a limited impact on fuel prices in the United States and Europe. The volume is equivalent to approximately 36 million barrels, covering around ten days of U.S. consumption and slightly more than one day of global demand.

Russia is expected to initially deliver 300,000 tonnes, followed by another 500,000 tonnes in November and a further one million tonnes later. The remaining three million tonnes would be exported depending on the condition of Russian refineries, which have been affected by Ukrainian attacks.

Goldman Sachs analysts estimate that deliveries in October and November could reduce wholesale diesel prices by only $1–2 per barrel in the United States and Europe. The United States is a net diesel exporter and does not directly depend on Russian imports, but the additional volumes could reduce competition for U.S. shipments destined for markets such as Brazil and Turkey.

Pressure on the Trump administration is mounting ahead of the November legislative elections. The average price of diesel in the United States has reached $6.28 per gallon, 72% above last year’s level, while gasoline costs $4.34 per gallon. The price increases are being driven by attacks on Russian refineries and disruptions in the Middle East. Analysts say a sustained decline in prices would require the restoration of refining capacity.