OPEC has lowered its estimates for global oil demand growth in 2026, due to the impact of the war in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has announced a downward revision of its estimates for global oil demand growth for 2026, forecasting an increase of 1.17 million barrels per day (bpd), compared to the previous estimate of 1.38 million bpd. This decision comes against the backdrop of the economic impact generated by the war in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

In 2027, global oil demand could increase by approximately 1.54 million bpd, a revision upward compared to previous estimates. OPEC estimates that by the end of the year, consumption will recover, and in the second quarter of 2026, demand could reach an average of 104.57 million bpd.

The OPEC report emphasizes that the global economy continues to show resilience, despite geopolitical tensions. Additionally, OPEC+ production fell in April by 1.74 million bpd, reaching 33.19 million bpd.