Germany votes in two states / AfD may make further gains, putting Chancellor Friedrich Merz under pressure

Germany is holding regional elections on Sunday, September 20, in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, votes being closely watched nationally because they could influence the future of Chancellor Friedrich Merz and the CDU. Polling stations are open between 08:00 and 18:00 local time, with the first projections expected around 19:00 Romania time.

The vote takes place two weeks after the AfD’s victory in Saxony-Anhalt, where the far-right party won nearly 44% of the vote, while the CDU fell to approximately 17%. The result intensified pressure on Merz, whose popularity has declined sharply.

In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, an INSA poll cited by Reuters places the AfD in first place with 37%, followed by the SPD with 35%. The CDU is polling at just 7%, close to the risk of failing to clear the 5% electoral threshold. Regional Premier Manuela Schwesig remains popular, however, and the AfD’s political isolation makes the party’s entry into government unlikely.

In Berlin, Die Linke is credited with 23%, the CDU with 21%, and the AfD with approximately 17%. The housing crisis and rising rents dominate the campaign. The CDU and SPD have governed the capital since 2023, and the result could become a barometer for the federal coalition.

National polls place the AfD ahead of the CDU/CSU, fueling speculation about replacing Merz, although the CDU leadership officially continues to support him.