Friedrich Merz faces a new electoral test, as the AfD threatens to gain ground in eastern Germany

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his party, the CDU, face another major electoral test on Sunday in regional elections held in Berlin and the state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. The vote takes place two weeks after the AfD’s victory in Saxony-Anhalt and could intensify pressure on the federal government.

In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the race is close between the Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the far-right AfD. The latest polls indicate around 37% for the SPD and 36% for the AfD, while the CDU would receive only 6%. Social Democrat Manuela Schwesig, the state’s head of government and one of the most popular local political figures, is considered an important factor in efforts to curb the AfD’s rise.

The predominantly rural state faces economic problems and a slower pace of development than other regions of Germany. The AfD is seeking to capitalize on local discontent with messages calling for limits on immigration and the resumption of energy relations with Russia.

In Berlin, the competition is expected to be just as close, between the CDU, AfD and Die Linke. A weak result for the Christian Democrats could intensify pressure on Merz, who has been leading the government for 16 months. The chancellor had promised to revive the economy, but the government continues to be affected by stagnation, the cost of living and low popularity. Nearly half of Germans believe Merz will be replaced by the end of the year.