Fitch Ratings warns that Poland's sovereign rating could be downgraded if it does not stabilize public debt by 2027.

Poland's public finances will be closely monitored until the elections in 2027, according to Fitch Ratings analyst Milan Trajkovic. Although Poland has a history of improving sovereign ratings, Fitch has downgraded the outlook of the 'A minus' rating to 'negative' due to the rapid increase in borrowing, driven by defense and social spending.

The estimated deficit for 2025 is approximately 7% of GDP, the highest in the EU, and stabilizing the debt in the medium term would require reducing it to 3% or less. Fitch will assess Poland's rating on February 27, and a downgrade could occur if public debt is not stabilized. The agency expects the Polish Executive to implement a structural fiscal plan that limits the growth of net spending.