BAROMETRUL Informat.ro – INSCOP Research – Edition V. Chapter 2: Voting intention for the parliamentary elections | For the first time after the presidential elections in May 2025, AUR falls below the 40% threshold.

BAROMETER Informat.ro - INSCOP Research - Edition V, November 2025

Chapter 2: Voting intention for the parliamentary elections

According to BAROMETER Informat.ro – INSCOP Research, edition V, conducted between October 25 – November 2, 2025, the first position in the voting options ranking is held by AUR, with 38% of options. The party led by George Simion is followed by PSD, with 19.5% and PNL with 14.6%.

BAROMETER Informat.ro – INSCOP Research is a monthly opinion poll conducted by INSCOP Research on behalf of the news platform Informat.ro in partnership with the Strategic Thinking Group think tank.

To obtain statistically relevant data on socio-demographic segments, the survey conducted in November focused only on two questions (the direction of the country and voting intention for political parties), but was applied to a significantly larger sample (of 3000 respondents), compared to the usual samples of 1100 respondents in which we usually address 25-30 questions.

BAROMETER Informat.ro – INSCOP Research also aims to bring to the public's attention topics of interest to stimulate national conversations about various subjects and essential public policies for the present and future of Romania, based on the opinions of Romanians in partnership with think tanks and prestigious academic institutions. It is an initiative through which we aim to contribute to the strengthening of democracy by using scientific and credible tools that bring the voice of citizens to the forefront of public debate.

Methodology: Data were collected between October 25 - November 2, 2025. Research method: interview via questionnaire. Data were collected using the CATI method (telephone interviews), with a simple, stratified sample volume of 3000 people, representative of significant socio-demographic categories (gender, age, occupation) for the non-institutionalized population of Romania, aged 18 and over. The maximum allowable error of the data is ± 1.8%, at a confidence level of 95%.

Remus Ștefureac – director INSCOP Research: "For the first time after the presidential elections in May 2025, AUR drops below the 40% threshold, but remains at a double score compared to the next ranked party, the Social Democratic Party, which is experiencing slight growth. PNL, USR, and UDMR maintain a constant level compared to previous months. The parties forming the government coalition accumulate 51% of the voting intention, while the parties in parliamentary opposition approximately 43%."

Estimated voter turnout

On a scale from 1 to 10, where 1 means "definitely not" going to vote and 10 means "definitely yes" going to vote, 17.4% of Romanians chose 1, 1.2% chose 2, 1% chose 3, 1.4% chose 4, 4.4% chose 5, 1.5% chose 6, 2.7% chose 7. 3.8% indicate 8, 3.3% choose 9 and 60.5% indicate 10. 2.9% do not know or do not answer this question.

Voting intention for the parliamentary elections: 38% of voters would vote for AUR (compared to 40% in October, 40.8% in September, 40.5% in June 2025), 19.5% for PSD (compared to 17.6% in October, 17.9% in September, 13.7% in June 2025), 14.6% for PNL (compared to 14.8% in October, 15.2% in September, 17.3% in June 2025), and 12.3% for USR (compared to 11.5% in October, 12.8% in September, 13.1% in June 2025). For UDMR, 4.8% of voters would vote (compared to 5.2% in October, 4% in September, 5.2% in June 2025), and for SENS – 3.2% (compared to 3.4% in October, 2.1% in September, 2.4% in June 2025). For POT, 3.1% of voters would vote (compared to 2.6% in October, 3.3% in September, 4.2% in June 2025), for SOS Romania – 1.7% (compared to 2% in October, 2.8% in September, 1.9% in June 2025). 1.8% of respondents would vote for another party (compared to 1.6% in October, 0.6% in September, 0.5% in June 2025) and 1% of voters express a preference for an independent (1.3% in October, 0.6% in September, 1.4% in June 2025).

Graphical presentation of the data is available here: BAROMETER Informat.ro - INSCOP Research - Edition V, November 2025