The lion in 2026. Experts' forecasts for the national currency

The exchange rate of the leu is estimated to depreciate moderately in 2026, with most forecasts placing the euro between approximately 5.05–5.25 lei, with more pessimistic scenarios rising towards or slightly above 5.2 lei/euro.

What the main forecasts say

An XTB report, cited in an analysis by ȘtirileProTV, estimates an exchange rate of approximately 5.25 lei/euro by the end of 2026, in a scenario with inflation decreasing to 3.9% and a high budget deficit.

A UniCredit analysis, taken over by CursdeGuvernare, sees the leu trading in the range of 5.00–5.10 lei/euro in the first half of 2026 and rising to 5.10–5.20 in the second half of the year, against the backdrop of a gradual decrease in inflation.

Other estimates from the economic press (Wall-Street, Monitorul de Cluj) talk about exceeding the threshold of 5 lei/euro in 2025 and a possible approach or exceeding the level of 5.2 lei/euro in 2026, in scenarios of inflationary pressures and persistent budgetary imbalances.

Relevant macroeconomic context

BNR projects an IPC inflation of approximately 3.7% at the end of 2026, with a clear return to the inflation target only in 2027, which suggests a still cautious monetary policy and a controlled depreciation of the leu.

The European Commission anticipates modest economic growth for Romania, around 1.1% in 2026, with private consumption affected by fiscal consolidation, but with investments supported by PNRR, which limits, but does not eliminate, pressures on the exchange rate.

Probable range for the exchange rate in 2026

Based on these sources, the following indicative range for EUR/RON is shaping up for 2026:

First half of 2026 - Frequently mentioned range: 5.00–5.10 lei/euro, with possible slight tests above 5.10 during periods of tension.

Second half of 2026 - Many scenarios rise towards 5.10–5.25 lei/euro, with some estimates taking into account exceeding the threshold of 5.2 in scenarios of higher inflation and deficit than currently expected.

These values are forecasts, not certainties, and depend on the evolution of inflation, the budget deficit, BNR's policy, and the external context.

Key factors that can change the exchange rate

Budget deficit: a credible fiscal correction can temper depreciation; delaying adjustments can push the euro above the ranges mentioned above.

Inflation and BNR interest rates: a faster decrease in inflation would allow for interest rate cuts and lower exchange rate volatility; persistent inflation maintains pressure on the leu.

External context: a slowdown in global growth in 2026 and possible episodes of risk aversion could further weaken regional currencies, including the leu.

What this practically means for 2026

For saving in lei vs. euro, forecasts suggest a slow depreciation, not a sharp jump, which favors gradual currency conversion strategies if you want to partially protect yourself.

For rates in lei linked to ROBOR/IRCC, scenarios with decreasing inflation indicate the possibility of a key interest rate cut in 2026, which could ease the burden of rates even if the leu depreciates slightly.

Analysis conducted with the help of the NewsVibe platform and Perplexity Comet