The Commission includes Romania among the 15 EU states at risk of migratory pressure in 2027

In the assessment published on 6 November, the European Commission increased from 12 to 15 the number of states considered at risk of migratory pressure in 2027, adding Romania, Czechia, Luxembourg and Slovenia compared with the first annual assessment. This classification will give them priority access to European operational, technical and financial support. The assessment establishes what forms of support the states may request, without automatically granting funding or contribution reductions.

In brief

Romania, along with Czechia, Luxembourg and Slovenia, has been added to the list of states at risk of migratory pressure. The list now contains 15 countries, compared with 12 in the first cycle; Bulgaria no longer appears in this category, but retains the possibility of requesting a reduction in contributions on the basis of the pressure accumulated over the past five years.

Greece, Spain, Italy and Cyprus remain the four states eligible for the annual solidarity pool. The classification takes into account the disproportionate burdens on their asylum and reception systems, including arrivals following maritime search-and-rescue operations.

Solidarity is mandatory for participating states, but does not require relocations. They may choose between relocations, financial contributions, operational support or a combination. The mechanism also allows them to assume responsibility for asylum applications from persons already present on the territory of the contributing state.

Bulgaria, Czechia, Estonia, Croatia, Austria and Poland may request a full or partial reduction of their contributions for 2027. These reductions require an assessment by the Commission and a decision by the Council; the classification does not constitute an exemption that has already been granted.

The size of the pool for 2027 and the national contributions are not public at this stage. The Council must establish them by the end of the year, and the support intended for Italy will depend on progress regarding the assumption of applicants for whom it is responsible.

The 15 states considered at risk are Belgium, Czechia, Germany, Estonia, Ireland, France, Croatia, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Poland, Romania, Slovenia and Finland. Compared with the first cycle, there are four new states, while Bulgaria no longer appears in this category. It nevertheless remains in the separate group of states facing a significant migratory situation. The categories may overlap, as they measure pressures over different periods and provide access to different instruments.

For Romania, the Commission cites growing challenges to reception capacity and the possibility of further arrivals because of Russia’s war against Ukraine. The table in the report indicates 215,300 beneficiaries of temporary protection in Romania at the end of June 2026, out of approximately 4.4 million across the EU. The figure represents the persons covered by this regime at the reference point, not the number of new asylum applications. Inclusion in this category allows support to be prioritised before a state’s obligations become disproportionate.

Preventive support is brought together in the EU’s permanent toolbox for migration support. This may include personnel and technical assistance from European bodies, funding and help with migration-management capacity. The situation of states at risk will be monitored and may be reassessed rapidly if it changes. Priority access to these instruments is distinct from eligibility for the annual solidarity pool, which in the new assessment goes to Greece, Spain, Italy and Cyprus.

The Commission justifies keeping Greece and Cyprus in the category of states under pressure by the scale of arrivals and protection applications relative to population and GDP. In Italy, the central argument is disembarkations following search-and-rescue operations. The country received 42% of the persons disembarked in the EU following such operations during the period under review, even though their number in Italy fell compared with the previous 12 months.

In Spain’s case, the assessment also took into account the mass arrivals in Ceuta on 30 and 31 July 2026. These events fall outside the main statistical period, 1 July 2025–30 June 2026, but the regulation permits the inclusion of relevant subsequent developments. Data from the main period would have placed Spain in the risk category; the additional information provided by the Spanish authorities led to its classification as a state under pressure.

A third group, consisting of Bulgaria, Czechia, Estonia, Croatia, Austria and Poland, is assessed based on the cumulative effect of migration on national systems over the five years ending on 30 June 2026. These states may request a partial or full reduction of their contributions to the solidarity pool. The Commission assesses the request, and the Council decides on the derogation. Romania’s presence in the risk category does not, by itself, grant it such a reduction.

The package presented on 6 November opens the second annual migration-management cycle and includes the report on the European situation, the decision classifying the states and the proposal for the 2027 pool. The regulation on asylum and migration management provides that the proposal is not to be made public. The size of the pool and the states’ actual contributions will become public and binding after the Council act is adopted. The key for allocating the fair share of the contribution combines each state’s population and total GDP, each with a 50% weighting.

Participating states are free to choose the form of their contribution, without an obligation to accept relocations. Denmark does not participate in the mechanism, under its opt-out from European asylum policy. They may receive persons through relocation, contribute financially or provide operational support, such as personnel, equipment and services. Relocation involves moving the person from the beneficiary state to the contributing state. Responsibility offsetting works differently: a state assumes responsibility for examining the application of a person already on its territory, instead of transferring that person to the state under pressure that would have been responsible. The regulation also provides for situations in which such responsibility takeovers become mandatory if relocation commitments are insufficient, within the limits of the state’s fair-share contribution.

To receive support from the pool, eligible states must communicate their intention to use it and their specific needs. At the same time, they must comply with the rules establishing the country responsible for examining an asylum application and allow the corresponding transfers. If the Commission finds systemic deficiencies that may seriously affect the functioning of this system, the other states are no longer obliged to fulfil their solidarity commitments towards the country concerned.

Italy remains eligible, but the Commission cannot yet establish whether transfers to Italian territory have effectively and sustainably resumed. The report records rejections of transfers requested by other states, but also recent progress. Bilateral contacts have enabled a limited number of transfers, while an Italian administrative letter dated 29 October states that they resumed on 12 June, subject to an assessment of each case. The Commission calls for this letter to be applied in accordance with the regulation and for the Italian authorities to ensure the practical cooperation necessary with all Member States.

The report states that the portion of the pool intended for Italy should be implemented after the Commission informs the solidarity technical forum of the results of the monitoring and subject to positive progress. The new decision provides for information to be requested from Italy and the other states at least once every three months. Any subsequent finding of systemic deficiencies would activate the consequences provided for by the regulation; the current documents do not decide on Italy’s definitive exclusion.

The national assessment takes place against a backdrop of declining aggregate indicators. For 1 July 2025–30 June 2026, the report indicates a 32% reduction in irregular crossings of the external borders and a 16% reduction in applications for international protection, to 730,800, compared with the previous 12 months. The distribution of pressure nevertheless remains uneven. During the same period, the report records 3,758 people reported dead or missing at sea, 12% more, based on data from the International Organization for Migration.

The first cycle also provides a benchmark for the financial calendar. The 2026 pool, adopted by the Council in December 2025, has two reference values for calculating national contributions: 21,000 relocations and EUR 420 million in financial contributions. Each state may fulfil its quota through one of the permitted forms of support or through a combination of them. The reference values do not represent relocations already carried out or money already paid. According to the Commission, financial contributions for the first cycle were provided for in national budgets for payment at the beginning of 2027; those relating to the 2027 cycle are to be implemented at the beginning of 2028 through the EU budget and relevant national programmes.

The Council must now convene the political forum in which states announce their contributions and adopt the pool for 2027 by the end of the year. Separately, the Commission decision on the classification of states provides for application from 1 January 2027 and entry into force on the twentieth day following its publication in the Official Journal.

https://2eu.brussels/ro/news/comisia-include-romania-printre-cele-15-state-ue-expuse-riscului-de-presiune-migratorie-in-2027