Consumers in the euro area anticipate higher inflation and weaker economic growth
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Consumers in the euro area significantly increased their short-term inflation expectations in March 2026, according to the European Central Bank's monthly survey, while becoming more pessimistic about economic growth, unemployment, and access to credit in the next 12 months.
In brief
The median inflation expectations for the next 12 months rose to 4.0% in March, up from 2.5% in February.
The median perception of inflation over the past 12 months increased to 3.5%, up from 3.0%, and the expectations for inflation over three years rose to 3.0%.
Expectations for economic growth in the next 12 months deteriorated to minus 2.1%, down from minus 0.9% in February.
Consumers expect an unemployment rate of 11.3% in 12 months, compared to 10.8% in February.
Expectations for spending growth rose to 4.1%, the highest level since May 2023, while expectations for income remained at 1.2%.
The European Central Bank shows that consumer expectations in the euro area regarding inflation significantly increased in March 2026. The median inflation expectations for the next 12 months rose to 4.0%, up from 2.5% in February, and the median perception of inflation over the past 12 months increased to 3.5%, up from 3.0%.
Expectations for inflation over three years rose to 3.0%, up from 2.5% in February. Expectations for inflation over five years increased slightly to 2.4%, up from 2.3%. Uncertainty regarding inflation in the next 12 months increased in March.
Households with lower incomes continued to report, on average, slightly higher perceptions of inflation and short-term expectations than households with higher incomes. The ECB notes that this trend has been observed since 2023, but the overall evolution of perceptions and expectations regarding inflation has remained close between income groups, all reporting increases in March.
Younger respondents, aged between 18 and 34, continued to report lower perceptions and expectations regarding inflation than respondents aged between 35 and 54 and those aged between 55 and 70.
Consumer expectations for nominal income growth in the next 12 months remained unchanged in March at 1.2%. At the same time, the perceived nominal growth of spending over the past 12 months rose to 5.1%, up from 4.6% in February.
Expectations for nominal spending growth in the next 12 months increased to 4.1%, up from 3.5% in February. This is the highest level since May 2023. Respondents from the lowest three income quintiles anticipated slightly higher spending increases than those from the highest two quintiles.
Expectations regarding economic growth have become more negative. Consumers expect the economy to decline by 2.1% in the next 12 months, compared to an anticipated decline of 0.9% in February.
Expectations for the unemployment rate in 12 months rose to 11.3%, up from 10.8% in February. Households with lower incomes anticipated the highest unemployment rate, at 13.7%, while households with higher incomes anticipated the lowest rate, at 9.7%.
Consumers continued to expect that the future unemployment rate will be slightly above the current perceived rate of 10.6%. According to the ECB, this difference suggests a generally stable outlook for the labor market.
Expectations regarding housing prices have increased slightly. Consumers expect their housing prices to rise by 3.7% in the next 12 months, compared to 3.6% in February. As in previous months, expectations from households in the lowest income quintile, at 3.9%, remained higher than those of households in the highest quintile, at 3.6%.
Expectations for mortgage rates in 12 months rose to 4.9%, up from 4.7% in February. Households with lower incomes anticipated the highest mortgage rates, at 5.5%, while households with higher incomes anticipated the lowest rates, at 4.3%.
Perceptions regarding access to credit have deteriorated. The net share of households reporting a tightening of access to credit in the past 12 months increased, reaching a level last recorded in April 2024. The net share of households expecting stricter lending conditions in the next 12 months rose to the highest level since January 2024.
The ECB's consumer expectations survey is a monthly online research conducted among approximately 19,000 adult consumers from 11 euro area countries: Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal, and Finland. The results are used for monetary policy analysis and complement other data sources used by the ECB.
The survey period for the wave in March 2026 took place between March 5 and March 30, 2026. The main aggregated results for individual countries and for the euro area are published monthly. The next publication, for the results related to April, is scheduled for June 1, 2026.
The ECB clarifies that the survey results do not represent the views of its decision-making bodies or the institution's staff. The data reflect the perceptions and expectations of the consumers interviewed in the survey.
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