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8 January 09:52

iBanFirst analysis warns that Romania risks facing a sharp fiscal deterioration in 2025. The US dollar would head towards RON 5.

Călin Nicolescu

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Economy

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Rising global bond yields could lead to tighter investor scrutiny for countries with fragile fiscal positions, such as Romania. Romania's estimated deficit in 2025 is estimated at 7% of GDP, and measures such as pension hikes could exacerbate this risk. Analysts also warn of a possible downgrade of Romania's credit rating.

Sources

Ziarul Financiar

Analiştii iBanFirst avertizează: principalul risc pentru România în 2025 este deteriorarea situaţiei fiscale din cauza creşterii randamentelor obligaţiunilor la nivel global; randamentele scăzute ale investiţiilor şi inflaţia persistentă vor împinge cursul USD/RON la 5,00, de la 4,73

Dolarul se va îndrepta către 5 lei, dar cursul leu-euro se va menține relativ stabil. Cele mai mari riscuri pentru România sunt deteriorarea situației fiscale și inflația - Economica.net

ȘTIRI PE ACELEAȘI SUBIECTE

Economy

Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan announced a deficit of almost 30 billion euros for 2025, equivalent to 25% of Romania's annual revenues.

Economy

On November 19, 2025, the leu depreciated against the euro, the exchange rate reaching 5.0889 lei, while against the dollar it fell to 4.3980 lei. At the same time, the price of a gram of gold rose to 581.2510 lei.

Economy

At the end of November 2025, the foreign exchange reserves of the BNR increased to 65.408 billion euros, while international reserves reached a record of 77.419 billion euros.

Economy

The Treasury of the Ministry of Finance has been designated the Funding Team of the Year for its success in external borrowing, despite political volatility and the negative rating.

Economy

The exchange rate announced on Friday by BNR: euro at 5.0860 RON and the US dollar at 4.4037 RON

Economy

On November 12, 2025, the Romanian leu decreased against the Swiss franc, euro, and dollar, but gained against the British pound.

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