The BNR estimates an inflation rate of 5.5% for the end of 2026, but BCR warns that the forecast does not include the impact of the depreciation of the leu from May.

The National Bank of Romania (BNR) has revised its inflation forecast, estimating an annual rate of 5.5% for the end of 2026, which is 1.6 percentage points higher than the previous forecast. For 2027, BNR expects an inflation rate of 2.9%.

Economists from Erste/BCR emphasize that these estimates may not reflect the impact of the depreciation of the leu in May, when the local currency lost 3% against the euro.

Governor Mugur Isărescu mentioned that the current exchange rate level could be balanced, but it depends on fiscal measures and political stability.

In the last week, the leu recorded a depreciation of 0.7% against the euro, while other currencies in the region, such as the Hungarian forint, appreciated. Additionally, the volume of transactions on the local foreign exchange market decreased, but remained above the long-term average, with most transactions taking place on Tuesdays.