The NBR decided to keep the key interest rate at 6.5%, anticipating an increase in inflation due to recent fiscal measures.

The National Bank of Romania (NBR) has kept the key interest rate at 6.5%, as expected, while economists monitor the impact of fiscal measures on inflation. Inflation is expected to rise significantly in the coming months, peaking above 8% in the autumn, driven by the liberalization of energy prices and VAT hikes. The NBR will not raise interest rates, but will manage liquidity, anticipating interest rate cuts only in 2026. The leu remains overvalued and the current account deficit continues to weigh on the currency.