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52 new news items in the last 24 hours
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  2. Economy

CFA Romania analysts signal a possible entry into recession for the Romanian economy, according to the Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator, with expectations of increased budget deficit and declining inflation.

Ana-Maria Tapescu
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27 October 2025, 08:46
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Adrian Codirlașu, the president of the association, mentioned that the indicator and its components suggest recession conditions, with a significant increase in expectations regarding the budget deficit. Also, for the first time in this inflationary episode, the majority of participants anticipate a decrease in the inflation rate, although the process will be slow.

The indicator increased marginally by 0.3 points in September, but the current conditions component decreased by 4.8 points. Almost 88% of respondents expect the depreciation of the leu, and 61% foresee stagnation in residential property prices. The budget deficit for 2025 is estimated at 8.6% of GDP, and public debt could reach 59% of GDP.

Sources

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Financial Intelligence
Analiștii CFA semnalează o posibilă intrare în recesiune a economiei românești
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Economedia
CFA România: Indicatorul de Încredere Macroeconomică a stagnat în septembrie. Acesta ndică în continuare condiții de recesiune
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Ziarul Financiar
Indicatorii CFA în septembrie: Încrederea în economie a stagnat, deficitul bugetar anticipat s-a majorat la 8,6% din PIB, iar creşterea economică prognozată pentru 2025 s-a situat la 0,8%
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Economica
Inflație mai mare în următoarele 12 luni și deprecierea cursului de schimb la 5,18 lei/euro – Prognoză CFA România
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Stirile ProTV
CFA România: Inflația va scădea, dar lent – procesul dezinflaționist se anunță dificil, avertizează Adrian Codîrlașu
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Hot News
Economia intră în zona de alertă: stagnare prelungită, inflație persistentă, deficite mari și încredere redusă

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NEWS ON THE SAME TOPICS

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Economy
The CFA Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator increased by 7 points in June, but recession risks persist.
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Economy
Adrian Codirlașu, president of CFA Romania, considers the latest report from Fitch agency regarding the Romanian economy to be more negative.
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Economy
The annual inflation rate in Romania is estimated to reach 10.3% in 2026, with high risks for the leu and economic activity.
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Economy
Romania will experience an economic contraction of 0.1% in 2026, according to the OECD report, but a recovery is expected in 2027, with a growth of 2.5%.
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Current Affairs
Victor Ponta states that the Romanian economy is in a critical situation, without growth in key sectors.
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Economy
The annual inflation rate in Romania rose to 10.85% in May, according to the National Institute of Statistics. Economists warn about inflationary pressures.
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CFA Romania recession Romania's economy inflation budget deficit

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