CFA Romania analysts signal a possible entry into recession for the Romanian economy, according to the Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator, with expectations of increased budget deficit and declining inflation.

Adrian Codirlașu, the president of the association, mentioned that the indicator and its components suggest recession conditions, with a significant increase in expectations regarding the budget deficit. Also, for the first time in this inflationary episode, the majority of participants anticipate a decrease in the inflation rate, although the process will be slow.

The indicator increased marginally by 0.3 points in September, but the current conditions component decreased by 4.8 points. Almost 88% of respondents expect the depreciation of the leu, and 61% foresee stagnation in residential property prices. The budget deficit for 2025 is estimated at 8.6% of GDP, and public debt could reach 59% of GDP.