eToro analyst Simon Peters estimates that Bitcoin could be favored in late 2026 by monetary, seasonal, and crypto market-specific factors

Bitcoin could benefit in the final months of 2026 from a combination of monetary, seasonal and crypto market-specific factors, according to Simon Peters, an analyst at the eToro investment platform. The cryptocurrency’s performance will continue to depend on Federal Reserve decisions and the direction of short-term interest rates.

Although inflation remains above the Fed’s target, a significant cooling in the coming months could create conditions for a more accommodative monetary policy. Lower interest rates tend to support assets considered riskier, including Bitcoin.

Another possible catalyst is seasonality. Historically, the fourth quarter has been Bitcoin’s best-performing period of the year. In addition, investors who believe in the four-year cycle are watching the beginning of December 2026, when approximately 500 days would remain until the next block reward halving, estimated for April 2028.

In previous cycles, this interval coincided with bear-market lows and periods favorable for accumulation. If the historical pattern repeats, December 2026 could mark the beginning of a new bull market. The analysis is for informational purposes, while crypto assets remain volatile and potentially risky.

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