The Massachusetts Institute of Technology has published a study estimating that artificial intelligence (AI) could replace 11.7% of the workforce in the United States, which would represent up to 1.2 trillion dollars in wages. The study was conducted with the help of the Iceberg Index, a labor market simulation tool that analyzes the interactions of 151 million American employees. The index provides a detailed view of how AI can reshape the labor market, not only in technology hubs but also across the entire country.
The Iceberg Index treats each worker as an individual agent, mapping 32,000 skills across 923 occupations. Researchers found that, although layoffs in the tech sector account for only 2.2% of wage exposure, the total exposure to AI includes functions in human resources, logistics, and finance, amounting to 1.2 trillion dollars. The index does not predict exactly when job losses will occur but provides an overview of the current capabilities of AI. It helps decision-makers identify high-exposure areas and prioritize investments in vocational training and infrastructure.
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