SYNTHESIS Informat.ro / The agreement regarding the Strait of Hormuz is shaking, after the USA and Iran have attacked each other.

The Guardians of the Revolution targeted an American airbase on Thursday, after the American military carried out what a Washington official called attacks on an operation involving Iranian drones near the Strait of Hormuz, just hours after President Donald Trump dismissed a report claiming he was close to an agreement with Tehran, reports Reuters.

Ali Baqeri Kani, deputy secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, stated that Iran's assets must be returned in full and unconditionally to Iran.

"We demand the release of all Iranian assets blocked by the United States, and this is the legal right of the Iranian nation," he said.

The blocked assets of Iran are one of the key issues in discussions aimed at ending the three-month-long war.

An agreement to end the war would only reach Iran's supreme leader after it is approved by the Supreme National Security Council.

The Agreement on the Strait of Hormuz: from hope to blockage

In recent weeks, international media have reported on a series of proposals for a ceasefire and a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for commercial transport. According to diplomatic sources cited by Nikkei and Reuters, a scenario under discussion involves Iran unblocking the strait 30 days after signing a peace agreement with the U.S., through demining and renouncing the collection of transit fees, alongside extending a ceasefire and launching discussions on Iran's nuclear program. Iranian state television reported on a draft agreement in which Iran and Oman would jointly manage traffic through Hormuz, aiming to restore maritime transit volumes to pre-war levels within a month. However, the U.S. administration has rejected these reports, with a Washington official telling Reuters that the proposal presented as a draft agreement does not align with the U.S. position, especially regarding control over the navigable waterway.

The U.S. Position: Military Pressure and Refusal of a "Weak Agreement"

Donald Trump publicly denied that he was "close" to an agreement with Tehran, as suggested by some reports broadcast by Iranian media, insisting that he would not accept a formula that would leave Iran in control of the strait or be perceived as a concession under the pressure of midterm elections. "No one will control the strait," Trump stated in front of his cabinet, emphasizing that Hormuz represents "international waters."

The president added that Oman "will have to behave like everyone else or we will have to blow them up," a statement widely interpreted as a direct threat to a traditional U.S. ally in the Gulf. The White House has not yet provided further clarifications, but the political message is that Washington does not accept an Iran-Oman "co-piloting" regime over Hormuz and maintains the logic of projecting American naval power over this strategic energy corridor.

Additionally, the Treasury Department recently sanctioned the "Persian Gulf Strait Authority," the structure established by Tehran to manage transit requests through the Strait of Hormuz, arguing that actors cooperating with this authority risk, de facto, supporting the Guardians of the Revolution. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described Iran's efforts as a "new attempt to blackmail global maritime trade," amid the pressures created by the U.S. sanctions regime.

The Iranian Position: Hormuz Leverage, Nuclear Program, and Frozen Assets

From Tehran's perspective, control over the Strait of Hormuz and the prospect of a conditional reopening of traffic constitute the main leverage in any potential negotiation with Washington. Iranian authorities insist that sanctions must be lifted, and the financial assets blocked abroad – estimated at tens of billions of dollars – must be fully unblocked as part of a ceasefire arrangement.

Ali Baqeri Kani, deputy secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, stated that "the release of all Iranian assets blocked by the United States" represents a legal right of the nation and a central element of any agreement. Tehran also reaffirms that its nuclear program has exclusively peaceful purposes and rejects discussions regarding limiting its ballistic missile arsenal, invoking the right to conventional defense.

On the domestic political front, leaders such as Ebrahim Azizi, president of the National Security Commission in Parliament, argue that the Islamic Republic "will not be pushed back by Trump's rhetoric" and that any agreement will need to be approved by both the Supreme National Security Council and the Supreme Leader, raising the threshold for any compromise perceived as unilateral.

Impact on Markets and Maritime Traffic

The de facto blockage of the Strait of Hormuz is already having visible effects on energy markets and investor sentiment. Reuters notes that, normally, about one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) transits through Hormuz, and now only a "minuscule" percentage of ships still pass through the area, compared to about 125-140 daily crossings before the conflict began.

After the announcement by the Guardians of the Revolution that they had targeted an American base, Brent prices rose by over 3%, reversing the more than 5% decline recorded in the previous session based on hopes for a U.S.-Iran agreement. Gold fell to its lowest level in nearly two months, amid the appreciation of the U.S. dollar – which rose to recent highs – and fears that war-driven inflation will force the Federal Reserve to maintain or even raise interest rates.

Separately, shipping data cited by Reuters shows that two large-capacity oil tankers and an LNG tanker recently left Hormuz with their transponders turned off, heading towards India and China – a signal that some traders are trying to shift their shipments to less visible, harder-to-monitor routes to avoid restrictions and risks in the area.

Why the Agreement on Hormuz is Shaky

Diplomatic efforts in recent weeks have created the impression of a "window of opportunity" through mediated discussions or facilitated by regional actors such as the United Arab Emirates and Oman, but also through the involvement of global powers interested in stabilizing energy flows. A senior UAE official, quoted by international media, recently estimated that there is a "50-50" chance that the U.S. and Iran will reach an agreement on unblocking Hormuz.

However, the latest reciprocal strikes and the tough rhetoric from President Trump have eroded the minimal trust necessary to transform draft agreements into firm political commitments. For Washington, the main risk is the perception of a "weak" compromise ahead of the midterm elections; for Tehran, the risk is internal – the appearance of a concession under the pressure of American military and economic pressure.

At a technical level, several complicated issues remain open: the security regime in Hormuz (who authorizes crossings and with what mandates), the future of the nuclear and ballistic missile programs, the timeline for lifting sanctions and unblocking assets, as well as potential war reparations. A diplomat quoted by Reuters noted that these interconnected issues make any partial agreement, strictly limited to Hormuz, extremely difficult to "sell" to the domestic audience on both sides.

****Summary prepared with the help of a data monitoring flow provided by the media monitoring platform NewsVibe Romania. The analysis, data, and images presented have been enhanced with the help of Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence tools.