The comparison between the ELECTION RESULTS and the INSCOP POLLS published on December 7, December 4, and November 20, 2025

Just as we have done in every election, we publish the comparison between the official voting results and the published INSCOP polls (the scenarios with mobilized voters that assumed lower participation, as was the case on December 7, on election day).

What can be observed from the graphs presented below:

1. The polls INSCOP Research underestimated the final result of Mr. Ciucu. AT THE PEAK OF PEAKS, we have experienced the most severe defamations and disinformation in these days since our establishment, from some politicians, not all, of a party that describes itself as honest and reformist. We were defamed on the grounds that we manipulate because we indicate scores that are too high for Mr. Ciucu. Last week, we were the only institute that indicated that Mr. Ciucu would win the elections, and our estimates were not too high, but too low!

2. The polls INSCOP Research indicated the exact percentages for Mrs. Anca Alexandrescu, but we failed to identify her ranking in second place. A possible explanation is below.

3. The polls INSCOP Research overestimated Mr. Băluță's score, the only explanation we can identify being the fact that those who declared they would vote for him simply did not show up to vote on December 7, in the context of very low general turnout (a negative record in the last decade). In other words, his voters were less mobilized. Moreover, in the INSCOP polls prior to December 7 and published transparently by us, both on mobilized voters and potential voters, it was evident that with higher participation, Mr. Băluță obtained higher scores and with lower participation, lower scores. However, we did not detect, from the statements of the participants in the polls, such a low general turnout, so we are left with this evident overestimation.

4. The polls INSCOP Research correctly identified, as of November 20, Mr. Drulă's score. From that moment, his supporters launched an aggressive campaign of defamations and disinformation against INSCOP, which continued until yesterday afternoon. Essentially, what they were saying is that we manipulate public opinion because we give scores that are too high for Mr. Ciucu and too low for Mr. Drulă. In reality, our scores for Mr. Ciucu were lower than the final result, and the score for Mr. Drulă was similar, within the margin of the final result. What is serious is that in this campaign, politicians with official positions who should have been more responsible when defaming honest tax-paying private companies in the public space were involved. And more seriously, all these politicians had their own sociological research that showed identical scores to INSCOP for Mr. Drulă. We even made a call for their publication. I understand that they did not publish them during the electoral campaign. But, in the name of respect for voters, would it not be honest now, when the campaign is over anyway, for these gentlemen, or others alongside them, to publish their internal poll from the first week of the campaign in which Mr. Drulă had exactly 13%? I would expect public apologies for the serious ultra-public defamations, although I know they will not come.

5. The polls INSCOP Research correctly identified Mrs. Ciceală's score, within the margin of error.

6. The polls INSCOP Research correctly measured the result obtained by other candidates, with the exception of the poll from November 20 when there were also other candidates who have since withdrawn from the race (Mr. Alexandru Zidaru, Mr. Vlad Gheorghe, Mr. Eugen Teodorovici).

7. From the statements of the participants in the polls, we failed to identify such a low level of turnout (32.7%, - the lowest in Bucharest in the last decade). From the data collected by the polls, the estimated turnout based on the respondents' statements has permanently decreased in the last days of the last week of the electoral campaign, but never to such a low level.

All in all, there were no perfect estimates since the presidential elections when we recorded a difference of only 0.6 percent between the polls INSCOP Research and the voting results. But we had reasonable estimates, being the only ones who identified the winner of the elections. Yesterday, on election day, I informed everyone who asked me throughout the day that Mr. Ciucu would obtain a score of over 30%, even though other sources were reporting completely different data. Certainly, we learned from the excellent polls we conducted in the last year and we will also learn from errors.

However, in the name of my colleagues' work, we cannot accept the blanket amnesty of all public opinion measurement entities. It is very true that some companies have made a mockery of their profession in this campaign. Analyze only the polls published in the last week. However, this is not the case for INSCOP Research. There are, in Romania, enough serious public opinion polling companies that do their job honestly. Perhaps not perfectly, with specific errors of the work, but which have the strength to say NO to the reflex of some political clients to use them as manipulation agents.

And finally, a call to everyone. Ignore in the future opinion polls issued by entities that do not have a relevant, positive, and proven history between estimates and results. Also, ignore any opinion polls that do NOT indicate the entity that commissioned them. Do not read them, do not publish them. They do not help you at all.

Thanks to all the colleagues and partners who worked hard and supported us during this period.

Have a beautiful day everyone and may Bucharest have won the best possible mayor!