ANALYSIS. The Oscar nominations for 2026 and the favorites of this year's competition

The Oscar nominations for 2026 outline a season dominated by the feature films "Sinners", "One Battle After Another", "Frankenstein", "Wicked: For Good" and "Sentimental Value" and mark a unique moment through the record-breaking presence of genre films, international productions, and those supported by streaming platforms.

Main Nominations

The complete list of nominations for the 98th edition includes all 24 categories, from Best Film and Direction to the newly introduced casting category. In the technical and music area, "Sinners", "Wicked: For Good" and "Frankenstein" have accumulated a large number of nominations, after already dominating the shortlists in 12 categories (sound, visual effects, makeup, original song, cinematography, etc.).

Ryan Coogler's film, "Sinners", is consistently mentioned as the production with the most nominations, including in key categories – film, direction, screenplay, performance, and almost all technical areas. "One Battle After Another", the political comedy signed by Paul Thomas Anderson, also appears at the top of the lists for Best Film and Direction, complemented by titles such as "Hamnet", "Frankenstein", "Marty Supreme" or "Bugonia".

Favorites in Major Categories

In the race for Best Film, analysts and statistical models indicate "One Battle After Another" as the front-runner, with "Sinners", "Hamnet", "Frankenstein" and "Sentimental Value" as the main rivals. The arguments are triple anchored: success in the critics' circuit, very good results at the Golden Globes and other major awards, plus a consistent presence in the technical categories – a sign that the film has broad support among Academy members.

For performance, Leonardo DiCaprio is seen as the favorite for Best Actor, while Teyana Taylor is emerging as the most likely winner for Best Supporting Actress. In the Best Actress category, Jessie Buckley ("Hamnet") is considered the leader, after a season of awards described as "devastating" due to the intensity and consistency of critical acclaim.

Which Films Dominate the List

"Sinners" further solidifies its image as the phenomenon of the year: it led the shortlists with seven mentions and has now reached a record total of nominations, including for original score, makeup, sound, and two original songs. "Wicked: For Good" – the continuation of an ultra-popular musical franchise – confirms the strength of musicals in the streaming era, accumulating numerous nominations in the areas of cinematography, music, and effects.

"Frankenstein" and "Bugonia" continue the Academy's recent trend of validating genre cinema – horror, sci-fi, fantasy – not only in technical sections but also in score, direction, or even film. Meanwhile, "Sentimental Value" (Norway) and "The Secret Agent" (Brazil) show that non-Anglophone productions can break through the barrier of the international film category and enter the race for major awards.

Records and Unique Elements

The 2026 list is remarkable for several premieres and shifts in emphasis. For the first time, the casting category is treated with visibility similar to the others, after having a discreet debut at the shortlist level, with 16 finalist films and significant representation of female casting directors. The year also marks a consolidation of thematic and regional diversity: from the political "The Secret Agent" and the family film "Sentimental Value", to "Sirât", "Belén" or "The President’s Cake" in the international film category.

Another notable element is the performance of productions associated with streaming platforms, which not only gain presence in technical categories but also in directing and performance rankings, indicating that the "stigma" of platform films is fading. Additionally, critics note the broad representation of mid-budget auteur films that manage to compete on equal footing with studio blockbusters and established franchises.

The Significance of the 2026 Season

Overall, the nominations for 2026 seem to confirm a double movement: on one hand, Hollywood maintains its appetite for the spectacular – musicals, baroque horrors, fantasy blockbusters – while on the other hand, it constantly broadens its patterns, integrating international, political, and intimate films. The balance between extremely accessible titles ("Wicked: For Good", mainstream animations) and demanding auteur cinema ("Hamnet", "Sentimental Value", "Bugonia") indicates a moment in which the Academy tries to be, simultaneously, a mirror of the industry and an arbiter of artistic prestige.

Regardless of the winners in March, the 2026 edition sets several historical milestones: the consolidation of a new generation of star authors (Ryan Coogler, Chloé Zhao, Joachim Trier), the global validation of non-Anglophone films, and the confirmation, through the number of nominations, that "Sinners" and "One Battle After Another" will remain reference titles of the decade.

Synthesis created with the help of a data monitoring flow provided by the media monitoring platform NewsVibe Romania. Analysis conducted with the help of Perplexity.