NEWS OF THE DAY EXPLAINED: MEDIA COVERAGE OF THE STATE BUDGET

Romanian news analysis for yesterday reveals that the draft budget for the year 2024 has stirred diverse reactions and has been a hotly debated topic. The draft is to be adopted today at a government meeting.

The publication of the draft Budget, as well as adjacent topics such as the amendment of the GEO on fiscal measures for 2024, are topics of high media interest. The monitoring data analyzed by the Newsbox Romania team shows that the volume of conversation about the Budget has increased significantly in the last two weeks, with a relevant acceleration in the last two-three days. The Budget conversation is seen more in mainstream press sources (TV, classic media sites) than on social networks (most relevant Facebook pages), a sign that the topic is not yet producing significant public interest.

Source - online monitoring data (Zelist, processed by Newsbox)

BUDGET PUBLISHED THURSDAY. One of the issues highlighted in the news is the delay in making the draft budget transparent, an issue that seems to have given the ruling coalition a hard time, according to Adevărul. This suggests that there is some tension or lack of clarity within the coalition over the content and details of the budget.

POLITICAL POLITICAL POLITICAL OPINIONS As for political reactions, there are divergent opinions. Prime Minister Nicolae Ciucă described the budget as "realistic and balanced", while Cătălin Drulă, president of USR, characterized it as "lying and inflationary", as reported by Digi24. These reactions reflect political divisions in Romania and different approaches to fiscal and budgetary policy.

While, as far as the actual Budget is concerned, the media is more interested in the indicators on which it is built, as far as fiscal measures are concerned, the approaches are predominantly critical.

The initial proposals on salary increases in Education - later presented by the Government as a material error - or the cuts in the funds allocated to programs such as Rabla, Rabla Plus or Casa Verde. As far as teachers' salaries are concerned, beyond the government's messages and even signals of a deal with teachers, the message in the media is that the Executive is not honoring the commitments it made in the summer. However, the chances of a new labor dispute in the winter are low.

The media is noting the cuts in some budgets, in parallel with the decision to grant a 5% raise to civil servants and local councillors (although they should have been excluded, according to Ciolacu's initial claims). The explanation for taking this measure - criticized by the media - is political: namely, the fact that the parties continue to rely heavily on the performance of local structures in elections.

BUDGET PREMISES. Analyzing recent news in Romania related to the draft budget for 2024, it can be seen that it is based on an estimated economic growth of 3.4% and an average annual inflation of 6%. The state budget for 2024 is built on a deficit of 5% of GDP, with revenues estimated at more than RON 586 billion and expenditures of RON 673 billion. Total expenditure as a share of GDP is estimated at 38.8% and revenues at 33.8% of GDP.

CONCLUSIONS. While politically there do not seem to be any problems with the Budget or the fiscal measures - they are in fact supported by the whole coalition, and this will be seen in next week's vote - in the media, the perception of the government's actions is rather negative.

The budget debate is gradually covering many other topics, and the effervescence of reactions and statements, especially after the draft is adopted by the government and goes to Parliament, will make other topics even less visible. The framing of the debate will matter a lot, in the media, as it is clear that there will be a dispute between the idea that the new budget will be a positive one (the biggest increase in education and the biggest investment budget in history, according to Marcel Ciolacu vs. a new budget built on wrong premises, which deepens the deficit and does not solve Romania's structural problems in an election year, according to the right-wing media).

*Summary made with the help of a monitoring feed provided by Newsbox Romania. The analysis, data and images presented have been enhanced using Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence tools.