Commission proposes €45 billion for Ukraine in 2027, with more funding for defense

Of the existing European loan, €31.7 billion would support defense, while €13.3 billion would support Ukraine’s budget. The proposal’s annex estimates that, even after the planned support, needs of approximately €67.9 billion would remain uncovered. The decision lies with the Council; the amounts for 2027 have not yet been paid.

The European Commission proposes that Ukraine be able to use up to €45 billion in 2027 from the €90 billion European loan, with a larger share allocated to defense than in the previous year. The proposal adopted on October 30 allocates €31.7 billion for defense industrial capacities and €13.3 billion for budget support. However, the accompanying assessment shows that the planned financing does not cover all of the following year’s needs.

In brief

1.The Commission proposes up to €45 billion for 2027 from the existing loan, without increasing the €90 billion ceiling.

2.Defense would receive €31.7 billion, €3.4 billion more than in 2026; budget support would fall to €13.3 billion.

3.The assessment estimates additional uncovered needs of approximately €67.9 billion, assuming the war continues.

4.Budget support would be divided into two components of €6.65 billion each; the three proposed macro-financial tranches are indicative.

5.The Council must approve the proposal, and payments depend on the instruments’ conditions and respect for the rule of law.

The annex estimates a residual shortfall of approximately €27 billion for the budget and €40.9 billion for defense. Together, the two components total approximately €67.9 billion, exceeding the support included in the scenario under review. These are not funds already approved, nor are they a new loan request addressed exclusively to the European Union.

The calculation assumes that the war will continue in 2027 and separates public-budget needs from military aid in kind. Equipment delivered by a partner may reduce Ukraine’s procurement needs without becoming cash available to pay for public services. According to the Commission’s assessment, the data were cross-checked against information from the IMF, the donor platform, and the Ukraine Defense Contact Group.

The estimate remains sensitive to developments in the war and the fulfillment of external commitments. In the risk scenario described in the annex, the residual budget deficit could reach €30 billion. By contrast, the uncovered defense needs could decrease if other partner contributions also materialize. Ukraine plans to prioritize spending, use reserves, collect revenues more efficiently, and seek additional external support.

The new allocation maintains the annual ceiling of €45 billion. The defense component increases by €3.4 billion compared with the €28.3 billion authorized for 2026, while budget support decreases by the same amount, from €16.7 billion to €13.3 billion. The proposal does not add €45 billion on top of the €90 billion loan; rather, it establishes the use of its second half.

Budget support for 2027 would be divided equally. Up to €6.65 billion would be provided as a loan through the Ukraine Facility, and another €6.65 billion through macro-financial assistance. For this second component, the draft provides for no more than three tranches of €2 billion, €3 billion, and €1.65 billion. The amounts are indicative and may be adjusted במסגרת the memorandum of understanding and depending on the liquidity of the Ukrainian government.

Approval by the Council is required before payments can be made. The proposal to amend the decision implementing the loan is accompanied by a positive assessment of Ukraine’s financial strategy. Respect for democratic mechanisms, the rule of law, and fundamental rights, including combating corruption, remains a condition for support. The documents provide for monitoring and requirements specific to the instruments used.

For 2026, the Commission reported payments of €19.8 billion through the loan as of October 30, including €15.8 billion for defense procurement, €3.2 billion in macro-financial assistance, and €800 million through the Ukraine Facility. This balance concerns the current year and must be distinguished from the financing proposed for 2027.

If the proposal is approved, the Commission plans to prepare payments from the beginning of 2027. The allocation provides predictability regarding European support, but the annex shows why Ukraine will continue to depend on contributions from other partners and on internal resources to cover its needs.

https://2eu.brussels/ro/news/comisia-propune-45-de-miliarde-de-euro-pentru-ucraina-in-2027-cu-mai-multi-bani-pentru-aparare