EU industrial production fell by 0.3% in August, while Romania posted a monthly rebound but remained below last year’s level

Seasonally adjusted industrial production fell in August by 0.3% in the European Union and by 0.5% in the euro area compared with July, according to Eurostat’s first estimate. Romania recorded a monthly increase of 1.6%, following the decline in July, but production remained 2.6% below the August 2025 level. At EU level, the largest monthly decline among the main industrial groups was recorded in non-durable consumer goods.

Seasonally adjusted industrial production fell by 0.3% in the European Union and by 0.5% in the euro area in August 2026 compared with the previous month, according to the first estimate published by Eurostat on 15 October. Romania moved in the opposite direction to the European average, with a monthly increase of 1.6%, following a decline of 1.3% in July. The August rebound did not, however, recover the loss compared with last year, with Romanian industrial production remaining 2.6% below the August 2025 level.

In brief

Industrial production fell in August by 0.3% in the EU and by 0.5% in the euro area compared with July.

Romania recorded a monthly increase of 1.6%, following declines of 0.5% in June and 1.3% in July.

Compared with August 2025, industrial production fell by 0.2% in the EU, by 1.1% in the euro area and by 2.6% in Romania.

In the EU, capital goods production increased by 0.7% month on month, while non-durable consumer goods fell by 2.3%.

The data are initial estimates and may be revised. Eurostat has already revised the values previously published for July.

Romania’s performance must be read along two different axes. The comparison with the previous month uses calendar- and seasonally adjusted data and shows an increase of 1.6% between July and August. The comparison with the same month of the previous year uses the calendar-adjusted series and shows a decline of 2.6%. Therefore, the monthly increase does not mean that Romanian industry has returned to last year’s level.

The monthly series shows a volatile period for Romania. After an increase of 1.6% in April, production fell by 2.8% in May, by 0.5% in June and by 1.3% in July, before rising by 1.6% in August. The calendar- and seasonally adjusted index reached 93.1 points in August, with 2021 used as the base year at 100, compared with 91.6 in July.

Viewed annually, the situation shows a more persistent contraction. Romania’s industrial production was 5.4% below the previous year’s level in May, 5.5% below it in June and 6.2% below it in July. The gap narrowed to 2.6% in August. The data therefore indicate an improvement compared with the much larger annual decline observed in the preceding months, but the series remains in negative territory.

The European average conceals important differences between the main industrial categories. In the EU, intermediate goods production fell by 0.3% in August compared with July, while energy production fell by 0.5%. Capital goods increased by 0.7%, durable consumer goods production remained stable, and non-durable consumer goods production fell by 2.3%.

In the euro area, the decline in non-durable consumer goods was even more pronounced, at 2.7% compared with July. Intermediate goods fell by 0.8%, and energy by 0.6%. By contrast, capital goods production increased by 0.4%, while durable consumer goods production rose by 0.2%.

The annual comparison shows a different structure. In the EU, capital goods production was 3.6% above the August 2025 level, energy 2.4% above, durable consumer goods 0.8% above, and intermediate goods 0.3% above. The main decline was in non-durable consumer goods, where production was 6.7% lower than a year earlier.

This difference between categories is important because the aggregate figure of minus 0.2% for the EU does not describe a uniform contraction across all branches of industry. Capital goods production, a category that includes equipment used for investment and production, continues to be above the previous year’s level, while non-durable consumer goods are pulling down the overall indicator.

There are also wide differences between Member States. The strongest monthly increases in August were recorded in Sweden, at 6.5%, Estonia, at 4.3%, and the Netherlands, at 2.6%. The largest declines were reported in Belgium, minus 5.1%, Ireland, minus 3.1%, and Portugal, minus 2.0%. Romania’s increase of 1.6% places it above the EU average for this month, but not among the largest increases.

The picture is again different in the annual comparison. The largest increases compared with August 2025 were recorded in the Netherlands, at 9.8%, Hungary, at 8.8%, and Denmark, at 8.3%. Ireland recorded the largest decline, at 15%, followed by Belgium, at 7.1%, and Bulgaria, at 5.4%. Romania, at minus 2.6%, is therefore below the EU average, but its decline is not among the most severe in the Union.

Eurostat implicitly warns against direct comparisons between monthly and annual figures through the methodology used. Developments compared with the previous month are calculated from series adjusted both for calendar effects and seasonality, in order to reduce the influence of the different number of working days and seasonal patterns. Comparisons with the same month of the previous year use calendar-adjusted data, but not the same type of seasonal adjustment.

The index covers industry excluding construction and includes sections B-D of the NACE Rev. 2 classification, namely mining and quarrying, manufacturing, and electricity, gas, steam and air-conditioning supply. It is therefore not an indicator for the entire economy and cannot be used alone to conclude that a country has entered or exited a recession.

The data are also provisional. Alongside the publication of the August figures, Eurostat revised July’s monthly change from minus 0.1% to minus 0.3% in the euro area and from minus 0.3% to minus 0.4% in the EU. The annual estimate for July was revised from stagnation to minus 0.3% in the euro area and from plus 0.3% to plus 0.2% in the EU.

Revisions are part of the statistical process, since information for the most recent months may be supplemented or updated by national statistical institutes, while missing observations for some countries may be estimated when European aggregates are calculated. The next Eurostat publication on industrial production is scheduled for 16 November and will add data for September, as well as any revisions to previous months.

For Romania, the August data therefore convey two pieces of information simultaneously. Industry temporarily interrupted its recent series of monthly declines, but production volume remains lower than in the same period last year. Whether this rebound represents the beginning of a change in trend cannot be established from a single month and will depend on subsequent data and developments in the various industrial branches.

https://2eu.brussels/ro/news/productia-industriala-a-ue-scade-cu-03-in-august-iar-romania-revine-lunar-dar-ramane-sub-nivelul-de-anul-trecut