The World Bank warns that food prices could rise by 18% by 2027 amid wars and the El Niño phenomenon

The World Bank estimates that global food prices will rise by 18% between 2025 and 2027, amid supply problems caused by wars and the effects of a possible exceptional El Niño phenomenon this winter. The institution warns that commodity price developments could amplify food security risks, particularly in low-income countries.

According to the report published on Wednesday, energy prices are expected to rise by 32% in 2026, mainly because of the conflict in the Middle East. The average price of Brent crude is estimated at $91 per barrel this year, up from $69 in 2025, before falling to $79 in 2027 if the war against Iran does not resume after the midterm elections in the United States.

In an unfavorable scenario, Brent could reach $105 per barrel in 2027, while food prices could exceed the baseline estimate by a further 12%. The World Bank also forecasts a 2.5% decline in global oil demand this year, while supplies are expected to fall by 5.2%, the sharpest decline in the past 40 years, apart from 2020.

Fertilizer prices could rise by 14% in 2026, while metal prices could increase by 25%, driven by demand from renewable energy, data centers for artificial intelligence, and electric vehicles. The report was published ahead of a meeting of the foreign ministers of the world’s 20 largest economies, scheduled to take place in Atlanta, where the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine will be discussed.