The Intelligent Energy Association warns that massive imports of liquefied gas from the USA will bring volatility and unpredictability to natural gas prices in Europe.

The Intelligent Energy Association (AEI) emphasizes that massive imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the USA could cause fluctuations and unpredictability in natural gas prices on the European wholesale market. In October 2025, contracts were signed for millions of tons of LNG, linked to prices on the US exchange, which are significantly lower than European prices. AEI estimates that gas prices in Europe will be influenced by the correlation between TTF prices and Henry Hub, with a cost structure that includes taxes and transportation.

Price scenarios for 2026-2027 suggest a relatively balanced market, with TTF prices between 22-35 EUR/MWh, but also possibilities for price decreases or increases depending on supply and demand. The abundance of LNG from the USA could act as a ceiling for European prices, but differences in infrastructure and regulations will keep TTF above Henry Hub. AEI concludes that, although prices will be more stable than during the crisis period of 2022-2023, volatility will remain a characteristic of the European gas market.