NBR warns: Risks to the leu exchange rate remain high

Risks to the leu exchange rate remain high amid the conflict in the Middle East, still-large fiscal and external deficits, and domestic political uncertainties, according to the minutes of the NBR’s monetary policy meeting of October 8, 2026.

Members of the NBR Board drew attention to fluctuations in global risk aversion, the monetary policies adopted by major central banks, and the financing structure of the twin deficits. In this context, political and government stability, the continuation of fiscal consolidation, and the absorption of European funds are considered essential for reducing the risk premium and financing costs.

The minutes record a sharp increase in the leu/euro exchange rate at the end of September and the beginning of October. Government bond yields rose, while money markets underwent successive adjustments. The NBR also highlights uncertainties regarding the measures needed to keep the budget deficit on a declining path, in line with the plan agreed with the European Commission.

On Tuesday, the euro was quoted by the NBR at 5.3285 lei, up 0.13 bani from the previous session.