Europe’s gas stocks are at their lowest level in 13 years, and prices could remain high until 2027

Europe is entering winter with its lowest level of natural gas storage in 13 years, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warns. As of October 30, storage facilities in the European Union were approximately 75% full, below the minimum target of 80% set at EU level.

The IEA estimates that reserves could fall below 10% by March 30 in the worst-case scenario, which assumes an unusually cold winter and further disruptions to liquefied natural gas deliveries through the Strait of Hormuz. Cold spells late in the season could increase price volatility through March 30, 2027.

Low storage levels will force Europe to purchase significant volumes of gas to replenish reserves in summer 2027. According to the IEA, strong demand could prolong tensions in the global market, already affected by the war in Iran and risks to energy transport.

The pressure has already been reflected in prices. On October 28, benchmark prices at the TTF exchange in Amsterdam exceeded €100 per megawatt-hour for the first time since December 2022. Costs are being felt in household and industrial bills, while producers in the fertilizer, chemical and steel sectors have reduced their activity.