Romania risks being downgraded to 'junk' status due to a large budget deficit and rising debts, which would lead to higher borrowing costs.

Currently, Romania is facing a delicate economic situation, having a Baa3 rating from Moody's, at the recommended limit for investments, with a negative outlook. A downgrade could mean falling into the 'junk' category, increasing borrowing costs and pressure on the budget. In 2025, the budget deficit was 7.65% of GDP, and the Ministry of Finance proposes a reduction to 6% for 2026, in the context of a public debt that has exceeded 60% of GDP.

The economy has grown modestly, but the last quarters have shown technical recession, complicating the necessary adjustments. Also, the reform of special pensions, including those of magistrates, remains a sensitive point in the relationship with rating agencies. The government must demonstrate a credible plan for reducing the deficit and stabilizing the debt, in a crucial meeting with Moody's, which will influence Romania's borrowing costs in the future.