Analysis. The cold that has hit Romania has brought the highest gas consumption in recent years. What saved Romania from the interruption of gas supplies.

Every winter, when temperatures drop well below zero degrees, Romania enters a state of energy vigilance, the same thing happens: "seasonal specialists" re-discover that gas should be cheap, abundant, and guaranteed. Along with them come politicians who, if they could, would put up a sign on the gas pipe: "Regulated price – free entry".

Only that the gas system does not operate according to slogans. It operates according to physics, according to pressure, according to volume, according to the balance between gas outputs from the system – gas consumption and gas inputs into the system – gas sources. And physics does not take into account electoral campaigns.

The simple, raw, and verifiable truth is that during this period, the principles of the free market have saved Romania from running out of gas during the frost.

Not "the goodwill of the state". Not "the wisdom of the authorities". Not "luck". Not "intervention". But the fact that Romania has a mechanism that instantly punishes irresponsibility and rewards proper supply – the Natural Gas Transport Network Code.

And yes, this comes from work done years ago, when many were dragging their feet, contesting, mocking, and sabotaging the operationalization of the Gas Network Code in Romania. Because real change in Romania has never been met with applause. It has been met with suspicion, with interests, with fear, and with "it will be fine".

The gas market is not validated on a normal June day. The gas market is validated on a January night, when:

• millions of consumers are pulling for heating,

• the district heating plants are pulling for thermal energy,

• industry pulls as much as it can,

• and the pressure in the system starts to show whether we have discipline or improvisation.

The frost is the final test. A real stress test. Not a theoretical exercise.

At that moment, it no longer matters who has the prettiest speech. What matters is who has the molecules. The real problem with gas is not "where do we get gas from". The real problem is "who is responsible when there isn't enough".

Here Romania has lived in two worlds:

1) The old (and newer) regulated, administered world, "solved by the minister".

Twenty years ago, when the market was regulated, people lived in a fiction:

• "stable" prices,

• "allocated" volume,

• "shared blame",

• and the risk... thrown onto the system.

In the old system, no one was truly responsible. And when no one is responsible, it inevitably leads to a situation where the system pays – that is, all of us.

This meant:

• consumption beyond what is available,

• withdrawals greater than what the system can handle in an hour or a day,

• decreasing pressure,

• and finally restrictions, interruptions, improvisation.

I perfectly remember the winters when, instead of having rules, we had prayers. Instead of having discipline, we had phone calls. Instead of having a market, we had relationships.

And let’s not fool ourselves: if you revert to regulation, you revert to the same logic. It’s just a matter of time until we repeat the film.

2) The new world, market, responsibility, clear rules.

Real change was not "liberalization" as an idea. Real change was the introduction of discipline through the Network Code. A set of rules that made something simple and brutal put the cost exactly where it belongs, on the one who creates the problem. A supplier who does not bring enough gas to take care of their customers no longer receives a letter as in the days of the regulated market, no longer receives a grace period - they receive a bill. And not just any bill, but one calculated based on a truth that Romania follows, the real price of gas is the price at the moment when gas is missing.

And the moment when gas is missing is exactly the moment when:

• everyone is buying,

• everyone wants gas,

• often there is no surplus of gas,

• and the price explodes.

So yes: the inattentive or irresponsible supplier is hit financially exactly when it hurts the most. And suddenly, as if by magic, gas appears. Not because "the system finds it", but because suppliers are obliged to procure it because it is cheaper to have the gas purchased by you than to pay imbalances to Transgaz. This is the free market in its pure state, it does not beg you, does not convince you, does not educate you, does not comfort you. It disciplines you.

The fact that Romania had gas in the frost is not an accident. It is the result of a rule that many hated. For years, the classic Romanian struggle has gone on:

• ANRE with control themes and reflexes,

• ministries dreaming of "administrative stability",

• suppliers wanting many customers but little responsibility,

• distributors saying "it’s not our problem",

• and, of course, bosses and decision-makers who fear something they cannot control.

Because the free market has a major problem for Romania: it cannot be run by phone.

When you have a market:

• you no longer solve by "let me talk to....",

• you no longer allocate gas by "decision",

• you no longer deceive the system that it’s fine, when it’s not fine.

When you have a market, you have consequences. And that is exactly what saved Romania from this frost.

"High prices" are not an injustice. They are the signal that keeps the system on its feet.

When the frost comes, the national question arises: "Why is gas expensive just when we need it?" The answer is simple: because it is rare then. And one more thing, when it’s cold in Romania, it’s cold in the region. We are not alone on an island with negative temperatures. Romania competes for gas with:

• Bulgaria,

• Serbia,

• Hungary,

• Moldova,

• Ukraine,

• and, indirectly, with the entire connected European market.

If you did not prepare in the summer and want gas in the frost, in the current context you need to do two things:

1. you need infrastructure and a contract,

2. you need a mechanism that brings it where it is needed.

The price is that mechanism. The price is the language that everyone understands.

A correct price, even if higher:

• attracts volumes,

• creates mobilization,

• eliminates unnecessary consumption,

• stimulates balance,

• and prevents the collapse of pressure in the pipes.

In the gas market, the price is not just "a number". The price is a stability tool.

Those who do not know this are actually asking for us to return to the era when "cheap gas on paper" meant "gas missing in the pipe".

If we had a regulated price now, Romania would have entered the shameful scenario of large cities without gas during critical hours.

This is not propaganda. It’s fluid mechanics. When you don’t have a market and you don’t have discipline, the system empties.

And when the system empties, pressure drops. And when pressure drops, it no longer matters how large Romania's production is or how "strategic a hub we are".

You remain without gas where:

• you have high consumption,

• you have high peaks compared to the average,

• there are sensitive points in the network.

In such a scenario, large cities located at the end of the system can be affected, at certain hours: Iași, Timișoara, Satu Mare, Baia Mare, even Bucharest. Bucharest is not spared from physics just because it is the capital.

If you revert to regulation, you do not just revert to "pretty" prices. You revert to

• low pressure,

• panic,

• orders given on the knee,

• restrictions,

• and searching for culprits after the damage is done.

Romania has a chronic disease: it loves the effects, hates the causes.

The Romanian wants:

• gas

• electricity,

• water,

• heat,

But when it comes to the mechanism that ensures this, sabotage begins:

• "why should we pay imbalances?"

• "why doesn’t the state regulate?"

• "why doesn’t it force someone?"

Because Romania wants a permanent miracle: a market when it suits, regulation when it hurts. Only that the system does not work that way. Either you want a system that works in the frost, or you want energy populism. You cannot have both.

Yes, the market needs guardians. But the guardians should not become the masters of the system. The free market does not mean jungle. It means fair rules and referees – ANRE, ANPC, CC - who:

• do not favor,

• do not intervene arbitrarily,

• do not interfere with the mechanisms,

• do not invent prices,

• but apply discipline.

The market guardians must do one thing: defend the mechanism, not replace it. When the guardian becomes the master, exceptions appear again,

• derogations,

• combinations,

• "let it be fine",

• and, inevitably, crisis.

The conclusion that Romania must hear without anesthesia

The frost of recent days has shown something that many do not want to accept, Romania was not saved by promises, but by market rules.

And these rules did not appear by themselves. They were worked on, explained, imposed, defended over time, with opposition from all directions. Because every change that puts responsibility on the table disturbs. The free market in gas is not a fashion. It is the only real form of security for supplies in critical conditions. You can regulate the price on paper as much as you want. But if you regulate the price and kill discipline, you will also regulate the cold in homes.

And one more thing, for those who play with the idea of returning to the past: Romania does not allow itself to learn the same lesson twice.

The lesson we must learn these days, in which Romania has not been in the cold, is that the principles of the free market are not an economic theory for conferences, but a safety mechanism in real life. They are the only reasons why, in Romania, during critical hours, someone had the interest (importing gas because prices were high) and the obligation (penalties from the Network Code if you do not have enough gas for your customers) to import gas, on time, so that Romanians do not remain in the cold.

In contrast, regulation/capping done "in reflex", outside real crises, does not produce energy security — it produces artificial calm and irresponsible behavior. And when the artificial calm ends, reality hits directly: lack of investments, lack of flexibility, lack of gas exactly when the cold is greatest. The state can set rules and can arbitrate the market correctly, but the state cannot replace the market nor can it command gas molecules through an ordinance.

The truth is simple and uncomfortable: it was not the capping that kept us warm, but the discipline of the market. And if we forget this and return to the idea that the state "solves" through imposed prices and generalized protection, we will inevitably return to the winters when "gas was cheap" only on paper, but insufficient in people's homes.