On voting and golden age nostalgia

Big turmoil, big. For two weeks now I've been listening to TV commentary on the latest INSCOP surveys. They seem to have caught well with the press and I don't think they should be left unexplained. Because sometimes there is a risk that the data can be hijacked by interpretations that do not stick to the figures.
I'm talking about the latest INSCOP-Informat.ro barometer, whose figures have been circulating on this platform, and, more recently, the survey carried out for IICCMER, which focused on nostalgia for communism.
But let's start with the first one, because it's exactly about nowadays.
In a nutshell, it was discussing how the PNL moved ahead of the PSD in theoretical voting options in the above-mentioned barometer. For those who make forecasts and not prophecies it is very easy to understand the dynamics of these figures reflecting theoretical voting preferences. We are talking about data collected at the end of June, in a political context in which the most important positions at the helm are closer to the PNL than to the PSD. This is not a guarantee; in the meantime we will see how "austerity" is implemented and how people will see Premier Bolojan after these decisions. After the summer, to be precise. It doesn't matter whether it's PNL or PSD. Things can change.
But let's also not forget that at the end of last year and in the first half of this year, a part of the PSD public migrated copiously to the sovereignist camp. It's mildly comical how commentators who guaranteed PSD 30% a few years ago have ended up arguing "20%, boss", "it's unreal to believe otherwise". I don't think it is a very constructive attitude to keep denying the collapse of the traditional parties and hiding behind the supposed PSD pool, when the PSD has just slapped the party by denying Premier Ciolacu access to the presidential office when, frankly, some things were done, some money was given and some hard times were really hard times, not Bucharest's fault. But it is no longer enough. People want something else: they want a story, not just highways and subsidies. Meanwhile, two former PSD leaders have admitted in public speeches that the party is perhaps at its greatest risk in 35 years of losing the electorate it prided itself so much on its stability.
The central discussion today is that AUR has 40%, after losing the presidential election and everything from November through May. Okay, if you want, he's 39%. Nothing changes. We're not working with a microscope.
But perhaps even more interesting than the parliamentary vote indicator is the package on what I like to call confidence in a just world. In social justice, to be precise. Because this triangle - trust in institutions/ voting preference/ belief in a just world - explains many of the surprises we face as a society and a political system, which, unfortunately, we still misread.
Romanians believe that success is the result of corruption or relationships, that the state is to blame for their problems, that it holds them back and that it is generally the 'pilots' who profit, not the competent. But it's not just about the state. Make no illusions. It is also about the job market and the chances of getting a good job or a promotion in a serious private firm.
There is a total distrust in all sectors of social and economic and political life in Romania. I see something sadder here in this diagnosis. It's not that we're talking about one-off and deviant cases, but about a system in which our society and our economy function, in which 'connections' are actually more useful than competence in bureaucracies, but also for obtaining contracts, whether public or private. This is what I think people are telling us. And these things also explain the revolt that has grafted, almost irrationally, our political system from November to May.
As I have been saying all along, we are not yet talking so much about radicalization or anti-Europeanism among our public, but about such a huge discontent, stemming from a terrible gap between expectations and reality, that it may lead us in the medium term into an uncontrollable situation.
The theme, the fundamental grievance in our society, is not austerity. The theme is social justice. Which, if we play it badly, precisely on the occasion of austerity, we turn it into a bomb and the antechamber of radicalization.
The last two paragraphs also lead us to our most recent study, Public Perception of Communism. The nostalgic milestones. Some have said that the data show nothing new, that a cosmeticized form of seeing the golden era and Nicolae Ceausescu has been around for years, even after all that sociologists call residual communism has faded as we move away from the 90s. And it's true, comparable figures have been around, including INSCOP has measured this several times. It's just that we are now dealing with a very different political context full of risks. What we didn't have 10 years ago, for example. The memory game was not then a game with the future. Then, this X-ray from the latest INSCOP survey is very complex, touches many dimensions and is provided to the public together with a significant amount of statistical analysis detailing the responses by relevant socio-demographic segments. And it is only here that the surprises come and public discussion and policy should begin.
Otherwise, whether it is extremism or not, whether it is the hand of the "enemies" or not, whether it is a doctrinaire assessment or not are topics for future material.