Digital Duel by NewsVibe. Top 5 Presidential candidates in the online space in the last week of the campaign
Maintaining the trend registered since the beginning of the electoral period, PSD candidate Marcel Ciolacu was more visible than his opponents in the last week of the campaign, but his main followers also registered increases, especially USR candidate Elena Lasconi;the surprise at the polls - Călin Georgescu - saw a noticeable jump in visibility at the time of the controversy over the banning of his online materials, according to data processed using NewsVibe, an advanced platform for monitoring online conversations.
The final days of the campaign have brought an increased effervescence to the online conversation about the main contenders, stemming from the heightened dynamics of events and the higher tone of political messaging. As a result, all four major party candidates saw increases in visibility, but the paces varied - from the volume of mentions of Elena Lasconi, up 243% compared to the previous week, to George Simion's rise of just 10%.
Top 5 presidential candidates by online visibility
- Marcel Ciolacu(5,586 mentions) - up
- Nicolae Ciucă (4,301 mentions) - on the rise
- Elena Lasconi (2765 mentions) - increasing
- George Simion (2,501 mentions) - increasing
- Călin Georgescu (212 mentions) - increasing
Note - only mentions from relevant online and social media sources (sources validated by the NewsVibe platform)
At the level of the comparative evolution of the volume of mentions, the peak created by the accumulation of references to Marcel Ciolacu at the end of the week, in the context of the meeting with Viktor Orban, when several announcements were launched, including about Schengen and the abolition of US visas, stands out. For Nicolae Ciucă, the most visible moments were related to the visit to Vienna and the associations with the same Schengen theme, as well as the debate on Digi24, when comments were made about his non-participation.
Grafic NewsVibe. Comparison of the number of mentions generated in relevant online and Facebook sources by the top 5 presidential candidates in the last week of the campaign
From the perspective of the estimated audience reached cumulative by the references to his name, the peak of impact achieved by Elena Lasconi in direct connection with the moment of the Digi24 debate stands out, including through the mentions generated by the withdrawal of Ludovic Orban in his favor and the exchanges of lines that followed and that also involved Traian Băsescu. Also notable in terms of impact was the peak generated by the references to Călin Georgescu, at the time of the BEC decision to ban his campaign materials.
Grafic NewsVibe. Comparison of the level of impact generated in relevant online and Facebook sources by mentions of the top 5 presidential candidates in the last week of the campaign
The competitive analysis engine created by NewsVibe evaluates the strength of these political actors to penetrate the online space compared directly to their competitors. Marcel Ciolacu maintained a higher share of visibility compared to his opponents (36%). Elena Lasconi overtook George Simion, after the previous week, the order had been reversed.
At the level of estimated audience reached by these mentions, it is worth highlighting that both Simion and Lasconi benefited from a bonus in impact compared to the proportion of visibility, due to mentions registered in sources with significant reach.
It is also noted that, although in terms of visibility candidate Călin Georgescu gets only 1% of the total mentions of all the 5 candidates analyzed, in terms of impact his share is higher, for the same reason related to the score of the sources that included these references.
NewsVibe charts. Share of the number of mentions (left) and impact of mentions (right) about each candidate, respectively, out of the cumulative total of mentions about all 5 in the last week of the campaign
The Acceleration Trend is a NewsVibe impact calculation that indicates the altered (increased or decreased) pace of mentions compared to the previous period, drawing attention to considerable variation in public exposure. The clearest evolution reflected by this calculation is the jump registered by the surprise winner of the first round of the presidential elections, Călin Georgescu, around November 21, when the BEC decision to ban his online promotional materials came out.
Grafic NewsVibe. Moments of accelerated changes in the volume of mentions of the top 5 presidential candidates in relevant online and Facebook news sources in the final week of the campaign.
***** Synthesis realized with the help of a monitoring feed provided by NewsVibe Romania. The analysis, data and images presented were enhanced with Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence tools.
