Commission report: EU population could fall to 414 million by 2080, while Romania’s population aged 20–64 could decline by 30%
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In the baseline scenario for 2025–2080, Romania would have 7.8 million people aged 20–64, compared with 11.1 million at the beginning of the period. The share of people aged at least 65 would reach 31%. The results depend on the report’s demographic and economic assumptions.
The population of the European Union would fall from 452.2 million in 2025 to 413.9 million in 2080, while the number of people aged 20–64 in Romania would decrease by approximately 30%, from 11.142 to 7.778 million. These are the results of the baseline scenario in the assumptions and methodology volume of the 2027 Ageing Report, published by the European Commission on 4 November. The document prepares the long-term assessment of public expenditure, without establishing new retirement ages or pension cuts.
In brief
1.In the baseline scenario for 2025–2080, the EU population would decrease by approximately 38.2 million. The 20–64 age group would fall from 263.1 to 209.4 million, with around 53.7 million fewer people.
2.Romania would go from approximately 19 to 15 million inhabitants. The population aged 20–64 would decrease by 3.364 million, or 30.2%; this demographic change does not represent a number of redundancies.
3.People aged at least 65 would account for 32.6% of the EU population, compared with 22.1% in 2025. In Romania, their share would increase from 20.4% to 31%, while the share of people aged at least 80 would rise from 4.4% to 12.1%.
4.A higher employment rate would only partially offset the decline in the working-age population. In Romania, the rate for the 20–64 age group would rise from 69.1% to 70.3%, but the number of employed people would decrease from approximately 7.7 to 5.5 million.
5.The results are conditional on assumptions concerning fertility, longevity, migration and the labour market, including reforms already legislated. The new assessment of expenditure on pensions, healthcare, long-term care and education is scheduled for spring 2027.
The European trajectory does not begin with an immediate decline in the total population. The report first projects a peak of approximately 453.3 million inhabitants in 2029, followed by a decline. In 2080, the EU would have around 38.2 million fewer inhabitants than in the 2025 baseline year, but differences between countries remain significant: ten countries would then have a larger population than at the beginning of the period. Ageing, however, would be common to all Member States, as would the declining share of the 20–64 age group. The demographic values in the report are annual averages, calculated from Eurostat projections for 1 January of the year in question and the following year, not simple headcounts at the beginning of the year.
The change in the age structure is more pronounced than the decline in the total population. At EU level, the ratio of people aged at least 65 to those aged 20–64 would increase from 38 to 64.5 for every 100 people in the latter group. A large part of the increase would occur by 2050. The indicator, called the old-age dependency ratio, shows the change in the balance between two age categories. It does not directly measure the number of pensioners relative to contributors: not all people aged 20–64 work and not all those over 65 are inactive.
In Romania, the population aged 20–64 would fall from 11.142 million to 7.778 million between 2025 and 2080. The decline of around 30% is calculated from the values in the statistical sheet and is proportionally greater than the reduction in the total population, from 19 to 15 million. Over the same period, the share of people aged at least 65 would rise from 20.4% to 31%, while that of people aged at least 80 would increase from 4.4% to 12.1%. The demographic ratio between the group aged 65 and over and the 20–64 group would rise from approximately 35 to 60 people for every 100.
The working-age population should not be confused with the employed population. The former is defined here exclusively by the age range; the latter comprises those who have a job. The report separately projects labour-market participation, unemployment and employment. For the EU, the employment rate in the 20–64 age group would increase from 76.4% to 80.2%. At the same time, the report indicates a decline in the number of employed people in the same group from 200.3 to 167.5 million. In Romania, the rate would rise from 69.1% to 70.3%, while the number of employed people aged 20–64 would fall from approximately 7.7 to 5.5 million. These results describe a long-term scenario, not an account of redundancies or abolished positions.
Increased labour-force participation would only partially offset the demographic effect. The authors link it mainly to higher participation among women and older age groups, as well as to pension reforms already legislated. The “no further policy change” assumption keeps these reforms in the calculations, including their future effects; it does not mean that all rules and behaviours remain frozen at their 2025 levels. At the same time, the report does not adopt new obligations to retire or extend working life.
The demographic projection is based on EUROPOP2025, the Eurostat dataset published in 2026, and on assumptions concerning fertility, mortality and migration. The scenario assumes a modest recovery in fertility, not an uninterrupted continuation of its decline: at EU level, the indicator would rise from approximately 1.30 to 1.52 children per woman between 2025 and 2080. In Romania, it would increase from 1.29 to 1.65. Even so, rates would remain below the approximately 2.1 needed to replace generations in the absence of migration in all countries. For Romania, life expectancy at birth would rise from 80.4 to 87.9 years for women and from 73 to 82.6 years for men. These are statistical assumptions about the population, not predicted lifespans for individuals.
Nor is migration assumed to be zero. The report includes a positive net migration balance for the EU, which would stabilise from the 2030s at around 1.4 million people annually, after the higher levels of recent years. Therefore, the population decline in the baseline scenario occurs despite a net migratory contribution. To test the dependence of the results on the assumptions, the methodology also examines variants with lower fertility, higher or lower immigration from outside the EU, and higher longevity. These variants explore what would happen under different conditions; they are not probability ranges guaranteeing that the population will fall within a particular outcome.
Compared with the assumptions of the 2024 Ageing Report, the new scenario projects an EU population 9.5 million smaller in 2070. The comparison uses the same year because the previous edition ended in 2070, not 2080. The authors explain the revision through updated data and assumptions: fertility was generally lower than anticipated, longevity gains are projected at a slower pace, and migration is higher. The difference of 9.5 million is between two scenarios for the same future, not a population loss that has already occurred.
The report was prepared by the Commission together with the Economic Policy Committee and covers the EU Member States and Norway. Its assumptions are used to assess the sustainability of public finances, in the European Semester and in the analysis of fiscal-structural plans. The publication of this first volume establishes the common basis for subsequent calculations, without yet providing the new complete assessment of expenditure associated with ageing. This is scheduled for spring 2027. The scale of budgetary pressures will also depend on employment, productivity and the rules governing social systems, not only on the number of inhabitants.
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