Cristian Socol: Romania has gone from rapid economic growth to a decrease of 0.2%. Proximity to war and Trump's tariffs are two stress factors.

Romania has experienced a sharp transition from the second highest economic growth rate in the EU in the second quarter to a decrease of 0.2% in the third quarter, which has generated confusion and concern among the population and companies. Criticisms focus on the propagation of alarmist messages such as "inability to pay" and "economic disaster," which have not materialized but have affected the credibility of the authorities and increased the state's financing costs. Romania's macroeconomic analysis for 2025 shows an estimated growth of 0.7%, below the potential of 1.3%, indicating a continued stay in recessionary gap. It also highlights the inefficiency of the economic structure, with an unfair distribution of the benefits of growth between labor and capital. Proximity to the war in Ukraine and rising tariffs from the US have had a negative impact on the economy. Economic prospects are pessimistic, with risks of stagnation and high inflation, suggesting that Romania could fall into the middle-income trap.